Trade Committee

[Nationals GM (Preston - Old)]

This isn't going anywhere and stopped being productive awhile ago for everyone. The arguments have been cherry-picked, finding the exceptions rather than the rules to your success stories of underwhelming prospects who make it and presenting "data" of previously vetoed trades. There are too many arguments here using meager evidence to make your point while ignoring the rest, more prevalent evidence. Your ultimate assessment on any of the players in your arguments may turn out to be true, but the odds are heavily against it (if not, I would love to see your model; maybe it would get you employed by an MLB team).

It's all about value. I like that you think unconventionally when it comes to evaluation, questioning assumptions, and trying to find the diamonds in the rough, but at the same time you need to recognize that when the majority of prospects fail, the ones more likely to succeed are those that consensus, including those that are paid to evaluate players, values.

The trade was vetoed. We don't need to bring up the same arguments addressed here and elsewhere, but I will say I support them. You are not banned from acquiring Bumgarner, you just need to give a fair package and not, as some have said, mostly non-tender candidates.

The trade panel will also live on. I appreciate your interest in trying to improve the league and your activity, but we (most of us, it seems) disagree with you. I encourage you to try out all of your ideas in a new league. As I have said, I have experienced both types of trade review and nothing is perfect, but this feature, which we have developed and tinkered with over the years, has been, by far, the most effective.

Let's move on from this discussion.

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

Very well said PB. I couldn't agree more.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

[/quote]First off, how ANYONE builds their team is their prerogative alone.

Love the thought but very untrue if you have a trade committee system, impossible to do both

I chose to build my team through prospecting too, and it was far from easy.

sorta agree, will change it to. Its easy if you have the experience and done it for years.

"There's even more research you need to do"

no way, over non top 100 guys, the ranking already uses research done for you. finding guys who will be on the next top 100 involves more research and finding guys that will be MLBers not on prospect lists
Nobody thought much of Albert Pujols, a 13th round selection, until he was already in the majors, he was finally ranked in the minors while batting in MLB already. I watched Prospect rankers and even scouts fail huge on him.

and it's a crapshoot that can EASILY fail. Even can't-miss prospects miss (mostly agree but like to hedge the odds) - Jon Singleton was billed as that once upon a time, and he has fallen off the face of the planet.

and what stat says there was a good chance he would fail. 130+ k in any minor league season, a very distinct pattern over the years. Watch how Joey Gallo could easily end up like Dallas McPherson (a guy like Singleton, maybe before your time). Apply that stat to any MLBer see how many never had over 130k's in a minor league season. the rare one's that do, aren't in MLB for long. If they do, its an oddity against the stat.


I get you're mad at the trade panel for not passing your trade, but come on.

I am upset at the research I spent on making sure that the Yankees got good value in the trade compared to what he originally wanted. I do that with all trades and why I don't get vetoed for 6 years and can prove the 3 vetoes 6 years ago to be well researched as well, since I was correct on all 3 of those as well. I upgraded 3 times before he said yes, to the first deal posted. Then upgraded 2 more times in the rework. Only trade in 6 years that APPEARS that I have ever got over on someone was Blackmon/Chisenall..but at the time, I honestly thought every stat said pretty damn even at the time, luck and coors field affect definitely won in that deal.

I have spent 30 yrs looking at the patterns of what actual stats give the most telling examples of successful pitchers and hitters in MLB, even studing those Top 100 guys that fail and why. The obvious superstars are pretty obvious in the minor league numbers but there is a pretty strong pattern I have seen develop over time for your good MLBers. There always will be exceptions, but the high the odds, the better for me and I have seen certain stats that proven to work more often, I keep finding guys that nobody sees coming. Just have to combine them with some studs at the right time and boom, then I can prove the Dayton Moore, Astros, Pit, TB, Cle approach can work in fantasy baseball as well. Its not the approach anyone else in this league is using because its difficult and not the normal approach to ignore scouting reports and big names and just look at patterns. .

Most everyone will not understand the value of the players I scout til they get into the majors or not get to the majors. Yan Gomes, Vogt, Cahloun, Marvin, Healy, I can find unnoticed hitters, unobvious starting pitchers are the ones I can't get a bead on yet, but I am close, y but a rebuilt bullpen with non ranking pitchers should work for years based on their stats, now.

I am even unsure it will work, never tried this approach and really haven't seen anyone else try it before, but didn't want to rebuild by losing for 5 years collecting top prospects. I didn't want to be bored for 5 years, rather come close to the playoffs every year while I rebuild.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Nats - you were on the trade panel that vetoed the 3 deals I have ever been vetoed on 6 yrs ago. My assesments of those players are easy to see and read. I was correct on all of them, do you really think it was luck? Watch how it happens again. I did the rework twice and accepted the bad deal for me so I would have proof of my asssesments so I didn't have to deal with this type of BS again.

[Nationals GM (Preston - Old)]

*Sigh*

There's only so many ways you can say let's move on. Please move any remaining grievances over to PM. All of my points above stand.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

I actually posted the large one, not noticing your post. My bad on posting the large response.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Lol. The idea that I don't do research. Mike, I was going to let sleeping dogs lie, but I can literally email you my prospecting list from last offseason. Literally 1,001 prospects there with detailed scouting reports for each. Not much work?

I'm glad you apparently bat 1.000 on unheralded prospects. You should apply for the GM spot of every MLB team with skills like that

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Nov 8, 2017 17:42:44 GMT -8 Former Angels GM (Mike C.) said:

and what stat says there was a good chance he would fail. 130+ k in any minor league season, a very distinct pattern over the years. Watch how Joey Gallo could easily end up like Dallas McPherson (a guy like Singleton, maybe before your time). Apply that stat to any MLBer see how many never had over 130k's in a minor league season. the rare one's that do, aren't in MLB for long. If they do, its an oddity against the stat.

Ryan Howard had 166 Ks in a MiLB season, won ROY & MVP
Miguel Sano had 144 Ks, looks like a stud
Chris Davis had 150 Ks
Aaron Judge had 144 Ks, will win RoY
Kris Bryant had 162 Ks, won RoY & MVP
Curtis Granderson had 129 Ks
Mike Napoli had 166 Ks
Trevor Story had 183 Ks
Bobby Bonds had 179 Ks
Ian Desmond had 139 Ks

I could go on, but I'm stopping here to prevent wasting more time on this.

But no, I get your point - no MLBers with any longevity or success ever had 130+ Ks in a minor league season, and certainly, Howard, Davis, Granderson, Napoli, Bonds and Desmond don't qualify as having a long career at all.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Let me get the list of those who don't make it, not a chance, and not enough room. Sure there are always exceptions, for every stat, but still an oddity against that stat. The odds still are terrible. And everyone you mentioned most crashed when the big contract came and their value/stats were a loss (except bonds, no big contracts then, lol) Desmond may get saved by the Coors effect. Judge is one big freak, reminds me of Adam Dunn, he will break all the standards.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Nov 8, 2017 19:43:14 GMT -8 Rockies GM (Dan) said:

Lol. The idea that I don't do research. Mike, I was going to let sleeping dogs lie, but I can literally email you my prospecting list from last offseason. Literally 1,001 prospects there with detailed scouting reports for each. Not much work?

I'm glad you apparently bat 1.000 on unheralded prospects. You should apply for the GM spot of every MLB team with skills like that

'

I never once said you don't do research, your grasping at straws now. I said that its harder to research guys NOT on the top 100 or prospect reports. Its very true and if you do it then you understand the truth in that statement.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

It sucks to have your trade's critiqued and picked apart, I understand that as well.

Your research should tell you know how much you got over with getting Cody and his value/stats. I don't blame you one bit for saying yes to that deal. I am saying if that got approved, just about any should be approved.

We will see in 6 years again I guess, everyone fought against me 6 yrs ago too. I will admit I was wrong in 6 years if it happens, nobody did from 6 yrs ago.

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

Nov 8, 2017 21:12:06 GMT -8 Former Angels GM (Mike C.) said:

Let me get the list of those who don't make it, not a chance, and not enough room. Sure there are always exceptions, for every stat, but still an oddity against that stat. The odds still are terrible. And everyone you mentioned most crashed when the big contract came and their value/stats were a loss (except bonds, no big contracts then, lol) Desmond may get saved by the Coors effect. Judge is one big freak, reminds me of Adam Dunn, he will break all the standards.

Every player who makes it in the majors is an exception, considering the attrition rate of minor league players. Mike, at this point it is hard to think that you actually believe what you are saying. I will say the following as a league member rather than as a league office member: Please stop trolling.