2018 Playoff Odds

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

As his opponent, I can vouch for Toronto's 91.3% chance of winning this week. Frankly, that might be low.

[TB]

I'm loving the Seattle story already.

0% chance of doing anything, original prediction had them winning 1 game for the season, currently sitting at 2-0, despite being 29th on the roto rankings.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

I haven't examined these at great detail yet. I slightly modified equations for determining expected R, HR, RBI and SB, which look to be more accurate (at least more accurate to the last 2 years of data)

Week 4 Odds

NL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Arizona	0%	0.01%	0.01%	6.28
Colorado	80.16%	19.77%	99.93%	18.35
Los Angeles	0%	0%	0%	3.68
San Diego	0.18%	29.21%	29.39%	11.79
San Francisco	19.66%	77.68%	97.34%	16

NL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	0.68%	8.82%	9.5%	10.26
Cincinnati	0%	0.11%	0.11%	6.86
Milwaukee	55.14%	37.09%	92.23%	15.08
Pittsburgh	44.18%	47.09%	91.27%	14.79
St. Louis	0%	0%	0%	1.56

NL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Atlanta	0%	0.02%	0.02%	5.89
Miami	0%	0.04%	0.04%	6.1
New York	0.35%	31.24%	31.59%	11.82
Philadelphia	1.29%	47.42%	48.71%	12.63
Washington	98.36%	1.51%	99.88%	18.08

AL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Houston	28.29%	60.25%	88.54%	14.13
Los Angeles	0.08%	3.11%	3.18%	8.59
Oakland	71.38%	25.93%	97.32%	15.62
Seattle	0%	0%	0%	3.87
Texas	0.25%	5.39%	5.65%	9.24

AL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	17.83%	41.8%	59.63%	12.56
Cleveland	62.54%	28.03%	90.57%	14.5
Detroit	16.4%	40.64%	57.04%	12.55
Kansas City	3.2%	16.62%	19.82%	10.66
Minnesota	0.03%	0.48%	0.51%	7.12

AL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Baltimore	1.19%	28.61%	29.8%	10.95
Boston	0%	0%	0%	0.75
New York	0%	0.08%	0.08%	6.18
Tampa Bay	1.78%	46.41%	48.19%	12.08
Toronto	97.03%	2.65%	99.68%	17.05

[Diamondbacks GM (Ethan)]

I’ve taken a screenshot for posterity’s sake.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Will be posting an update shortly, but before I do, I want to announce/explain a major shift in the simulation algorithm. Until now, the program has been simulating using one number - an overall win percentage assigned to each team based on ranks in the projected (and already accumulated) statistics.

However, I took on the task of researching historical win% of specific stats. Going back to 2012, I looked at each position in the power rankings each team landed in specific stats, and compared that ranking to the percentage that category was won in any given week. Unsurprisingly, linear regressions fit extremely well.

If anyone is interested, it lends a lot of credence to the volatility of certain stats as opposed to others. Rate stats are won with much less consistency by the best teams in the league at that stat than counting stats (for example, historically, teams that have led the league in the K stat have won that category over 87% of the time on average, whereas the best team in the league at ERA has averaged a touch over 67% of the wins).

So, the newest iteration of the program simulates the 12 individual stat matchups each week and decides the winner based on the outcome.

What does this mean?

Simply put, more accuracy. Being superior in one specific stat could have skewed results, even slightly before. Now, it still helps you in the simulations, but only in the one category.

But like, what does this MEAN?

I don't know. I've noticed the odds on certain teams increase or decrease, but nothing extremely drastic. Perhaps the old system was working just fine. Idk - but more accuracy never hurt anyone.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

First time I've posted with the new individual category simulation. Comparing the different algorithms, this affects some teams more than others, which is probably a good thing (accuracy to be seen, but it bodes well).

Week 9 Odds

NL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Arizona	0%	0.01%	0.01%	7.26
Colorado	54.52%	45.47%	99.99%	17.55
Los Angeles	0%	0%	0%	1.36
San Diego	0.01%	19.75%	19.76%	11.13
San Francisco	45.48%	54.51%	99.99%	17.38

NL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	0.43%	16.05%	16.48%	11.1
Cincinnati	0%	0.22%	0.22%	7.97
Milwaukee	88.86%	10.64%	99.5%	15.92
Pittsburgh	10.71%	65.5%	76.21%	12.77
St. Louis	0%	0%	0%	1.53

NL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Atlanta	0%	0%	0%	4.13
Miami	0%	0.02%	0.02%	6.94
New York	0%	10.61%	10.61%	10.53
Philadelphia	0.04%	77.18%	77.22%	13.03
Washington	99.96%	0.04%	100%	19.82

AL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Houston	20.57%	58.51%	79.08%	13.39
Los Angeles	0%	0.01%	0.01%	6
Oakland	79.3%	18.77%	98.07%	15.41
Seattle	0%	0%	0%	4.48
Texas	0.14%	6.41%	6.54%	10.24

AL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	20.2%	62.31%	82.51%	13.61
Cleveland	74.53%	23.04%	97.57%	15.23
Detroit	5.25%	37.34%	42.59%	12.33
Kansas City	0.01%	1.24%	1.25%	8.77
Minnesota	0.01%	0.49%	0.5%	8.43

AL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Baltimore	0%	5.09%	5.09%	9.87
Boston	0%	0%	0%	0.46
New York	0%	0%	0%	6.04
Tampa Bay	0.22%	86.57%	86.79%	13.71
Toronto	99.78%	0.22%	100%	18.58

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

All-Star Break Update

We might be just over halfway through the MLB season, but here, that's 3/4 of the regular season. So, with the homestretch in sight, let's see where we stand.

Week 16 Odds

NL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Arizona	0%	0%	0%	7.81
Colorado	98.37%	1.63%	100%	17.52
Los Angeles	0%	0%	0%	1.34
San Diego	0%	0%	0%	8.9
San Francisco	1.63%	98.1%	99.73%	14.9

NL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	0.03%	23.19%	23.22%	12.27
Cincinnati	0.12%	19.85%	19.97%	11.7
Milwaukee	97.41%	2.56%	99.97%	16.39
Pittsburgh	2.44%	60.51%	62.95%	12.83
St. Louis	0%	0%	0%	1.2

NL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Atlanta	0%	0%	0%	4.6
Miami	0%	0%	0%	6.06
New York	0%	0.02%	0.02%	9.57
Philadelphia	0%	94.13%	94.13%	14.13
Washington	100%	0%	100%	18.8

AL West	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Houston	33.08%	61.22%	94.3%	14.06
Los Angeles	0%	0%	0%	4.03
Oakland	66.51%	33.23%	99.74%	15.21
Seattle	0%	0%	0%	7.18
Texas	0.41%	19.81%	20.22%	12.06

AL Central	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Chicago	5.62%	85.06%	90.68%	13.4
Cleveland	94.38%	5.62%	100%	16.17
Detroit	0%	0.48%	0.48%	9.86
Kansas City	0%	0.46%	0.46%	10.02
Minnesota	0%	0%	0%	7.17

AL East	Division%	Wild Card %	Total Playoff %	Average Wins
Baltimore	0%	0.04%	0.04%	8.64
Boston	0%	0%	0%	0.28
New York	0%	0%	0%	8.16
Tampa Bay	1.21%	92.88%	94.09%	14.12
Toronto	98.79%	1.21%	100%	16.64