2019 Playoff Odds

[Former Dodgers GM (Andrew)]

6 wins and a 0.04% chance at the playoffs....that’s gotta be my best showing in years, baby steps.

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

Mar 7, 2019 16:58:51 GMT -8 Rockies GM (Dan) said:

Mar 7, 2019 16:34:13 GMT -8 Brewers GM (Kevin) said:

When you make posts like this, it serves as a reminder of why the Rockies are what they are. Awesome stuff. Not a fan of my projected fate though.

But hey, the models have never seemed to like me that much in previous seasons and I’ve stilled managed to squeeze out a few division titles.

30% isn't nothing though. Last year, in the very early predictions, I forget the change which was made last year in the preseason, but I distinctly remember you jumping when I tweaked it

Spot on Kevin, Dan probably runs the numbers before agreeing to any trade, or before placing a bid for free agency. I'm sure he has a formula for how many dollars he should invest in a player per win.

[Giants GM (Griffin)]

Thanks for sharing, super cool!!

Seems the Giants had a rough OF Free Agency...

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

I thought of a way to test my program to see if any errors stem from the simulation algorithms or from the process of collecting, aggregating and projecting expected stats from the preseason projections.

I input all of the final accumulated stats from 2018, took the projections away completely and ran the program on last year's schedule.

Looking at the graph, accounting for trades and things that changed the course of stats all season, it stands for itself. The simulation portion of my program is right on the money.



That data is good for an r² of 0.879076. With all the randomness that happens (I think even Pat would agree that he got lucky last season. The final stats project the Reds for about 9 wins - four less than he won), I'm more than satisfied with that outcome.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

If there's one thing last year taught me, it's that the program can have pretty wild swings in percentages over the course of a few weeks in the preseason. Part of that is projections changing based on spring training, injuries and also roster changes through last-minute free agency and trades.

Here is the final preseason odds. This is what I will use in order to test the accuracy of the program next season.

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	0.42%	0.42%	7.3
Colorado Rockies	57.91%	41.86%	99.77%	17.7
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.02%	0.02%	5.76
San Diego Padres	0.27%	35.68%	35.95%	12.08
San Francisco Giants	41.83%	57.51%	99.34%	17.06

Win Spread




NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	70.8%	22.62%	93.41%	15.4
Cincinnati Reds	0.3%	3.47%	3.76%	9.33
Milwaukee Brewers	6.42%	30.71%	37.14%	11.84
Pittsburgh Pirates	22.48%	48.94%	71.42%	13.73
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.24

Win Spread




NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	6.71%	41.73%	48.44%	12.6
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	3.68
New York Mets	0.17%	2.94%	3.11%	9.1
Philadelphia Phillies	0.76%	8.31%	9.07%	9.89
Washington Nationals	92.36%	5.78%	98.14%	16.38

Win Spread



AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0.03%	0.94%	0.97%	7.83
Los Angeles Angels	59.3%	35.33%	94.63%	15.6
Oakland Athletics	20.75%	56.42%	77.18%	13.68
Seattle Mariners	19.91%	57.65%	77.56%	13.94
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	1.55

Win Spread



AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	15.4%	19.04%	34.44%	11.64
Cleveland Indians	72.86%	11.09%	83.95%	14.01
Detroit Tigers	0.15%	0.37%	0.52%	7.38
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	3.91
Minnesota Twins	11.59%	16.45%	28.04%	11.47

Win Spread




AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0.01%	0.01%	5.21
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	3.08
New York Yankees	0.07%	7.89%	7.96%	9.95
Tampa Bay Rays	23.74%	71.38%	95.12%	15.38
Toronto Blue Jays	76.19%	23.44%	99.64%	17.29

Win Spread




Notes

The Padres were big fallers in the NL, most likely due to the injuries which have already affected the team. Their loss was the Atlanta Braves' gain.

Oakland was the big gainer in the AL. I can't say I've paid complete attention to know why that's the case. In the AL West, Seattle and Oakland are neck and neck (their bell curves are nearly identical), as are Minnesota and Chicago in the AL Central.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Oakland since last one -

McCutch - maybe, not sure before or after.
Gattis - FA
Dozier - trade
O'Brien - draft

killer finish of off season, if they hit their projections.

[Giants GM (Griffin)]

Should be a good race in the NL West!

[Red Sox GM (John)]

This stuff is seriously awesome. And really motivating. This league will teach me patience of which I have little when it comes to dynasty sports. Other owners in my many dynasty football leagues talk about 3 year plans and such where they figure they can't compete for the next couple of seasons and I look at them like they are crazy. I have rarely taken over a dynasty team where I didn't feel like I couldn't compete right away with some big moves. My mindset with the Red Sox is that I will beat projections from day 1 and continue to get better as the season progresses. Free Agency was rough and a bit of a wakeup call. My division is a wee bit top heavy. Here is to competing in 2019 and always looking to get better. Oh, and we are coming for you Bluejays...