2015 MLB Power Rankings

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

Yes, its back, and this time the MLB Power Rankings were determined by a combination of Beau (Cubs) and myself, using the same formula that saw the power rankings almost mirror the finishing order, before the play-offs last season.


For those that are new to the league, or require refreshing on the formula/criteria for providing these power rankings, here it is-

We have used the following points allocation-

Batting - maximum of 40 points
Starting line-up players (as we see them, not necessarily as published on fantrax) were each rated out of 4 point each.
Bench batting was rated as a total out of 8, based on the number of positions that could be covered, and the quality of the coverage.

Pitching - maximum of 40 points
Best 5 starting pitchers (as we see them) were each rated out of 4 points each
Likelihood to receive enough saves to win category most weeks was rated out of 10 points.
Likelihood to receive enough holds to win category most weeks was rated out of 10 points.

The shortcomings of this measure was it disregarded any starting pitchers outside of the top 5 for each team. Although it could be argued that starting pitchers numbers 6,7,8, etc may hurt in terms of ERA and WHIP, but would certainly help in the counting stats of strike-out and wins.


The way I will list the results is the total points out of 80, then the batting + the pitching scores (both out of 40 points).

Hitting + Pitching = Total

1. 33 38 71 Phillies - (=18)
1. 33 38 71 Cubs - (=6)
3. 32 36 68 Rangers - (2)
3. 32 36 68 Nationals - (1)
5. 30 36 66 Angels - (5)
5. 28 38 66 Padres - (3)
6. 28 35 63 Orioles - (=10)
7. 29 33 62 Braves - (=10)
7. 34 28 62 Rockies - (4)
9. 27 33 60 Dodgers - (=24)
10. 27 32 59 Yanks - (8)
10. 28 31 59 Reds - (=12)
12. 24 33 57 Astros - (9)
13. 26 29 55 Twins - (=6)
14. 32 22 54 Tigers - (=12)
15. 26 27 53 Pirates - (=18)
16. 25 26 51 Mariners - (=26)
17. 29 20 49 Indians - (15)
17. 26 23 49 White Sox - (17)
17. 21 28 49 Marlins - (=18)
20. 31 17 48 Giants - (14)
21. 21 26 47 RedSox - (=24)
23. 19 27 46 Cards - (=28)
23. 21 25 46 Dbacks - (=28)
25. 26 19 45 Mets - (=18)
25. 26 19 45 Brewers - (16)
27. 21 22 43 A's - (=26)
28. 26 13 39 Jays - (23)
29. 15 17 32 Rays - (=18)
30. 18 13 31 Royals - (30)

Number in brackets is the finishing position for the teams based on win/loss record during the regular season match-up's.

We are as always open to comments both positive and negative, and would love to see someone else come-up with power rankings using another method, so that we can compare the results come seasons end.

Big thanks to Beau for initiating the power rankings this year, hopefully for my teams sake it not too accurate...lol

[Padres GM (Amy)]

awesome! well done guys.

[Deleted]

Im actually suprised im that high! Lol

Sent from my SCH-I435 using proboards

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

if you wouldn't smoke that stuff all the time, you wouldn't have such high tolerance.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

great work by the way

[Deleted]

HAHA

[Nationals GM (Preston - Old)]

Great work. Looks like we're going to have a pretty wild season. Best of luck to all.

[Royals GM (Mac - Retired)]

You sure you don't want to put some college teams in front of the Royals LOL

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

The NL is crazy competitive. #9 on the list (though I'm not sure how tiebreakers work, could simply be tied for 8), but #6 in the NL. Even with the best-rated offense in the league

My only disagreement is that I think rating Saves and Holds as 10 each, or 20/40 (50%) of the pitching grade is a little overvalued. Each are only 1/6 of the categories, so I'd argue they should count as 1/3, not 1/2 of the grade. That's the reason I'm willing to punt saves (although I am rooting for Aaron Sanchez to close).

Great job, and thanks for the work!

I've been looking at a potential model relying solely on Steamer projections (or any really, Steamer is just my favorite), and if I have the time might calculate the league and post. Would be interesting to see what's more accurate in the end - objectiveness or pure statistical projection

[Guardians GM (Matt)]

I am very surprised by my low ranking. I do think Saves/Holds are weighted too highly considering you can punt saves entirely as a strategy (one I happen to be employing). I will just have to take being tied for 3rd in the division I won last year with an injured Goldschmidt as motivation to win it all this year.

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

Point taken on the weighting of saves & holds. The initial thought process was that between saves & holds they account for just 2 of the 6 pitching categories, but top saves & holds guys often run with lower ERA's and WHIP numbers than most starting pitchers, so they can have a significant effect on the outcome of 2 more pitching categories. Hence the weighting that was employed.

I am very open to others putting together power rankings with a different basis, and comparing the results.

I don't expect that we will ever have an exact formula, given the amount of variables in a baseball game, little less an entire season, and even if I did I probably wouldn't share it...lol

Thanks for the comments, talking baseball is the next best thing to watching it, hurry up April.

[Rangers GM (Victor)]

4 of the top 5 teams seem to reside in 2 divisions. I see the Angels are gaining fast and trying to strip me of my division crown finally. I honestly hadnt even looked at any other team in my division figuring if I took care of my team, the rest would just fall into place. Maybe I should be watching my back according to these rankings.

Well done guys. I know this kind of stuff takes time but fun to watch and compare as season wears on.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

I had some time on my hands (i.e. procrastinating on a research paper), and did some really basic statistical calculations for this data. Based on that, here are the rankings for the individual divisions in terms of overall strength and competitiveness (judged by standard deviation). A note for anyone unfamiliar with standard deviation - the lower the score, the higher the competitiveness. Some of this may be obvious, but I found it to be interesting at the very least.

First, the baselines: For the entirety of PB's MLB, the mean team score is 53.8, with a standard deviation of 10.8.

Overall, the NL is both stronger and more competitive than the AL, coming in with a mean score of 56.7 and a standard deviation of 9.81, compared to the AL's 50.9 and 11.26. Seven of the top ten projected teams reside in the NL, which speaks for itself. Also, the four teams with the lowest scores all call the AL home, which affects the standard deviation or the competitiveness.

Here's the raw data with my commentary below

League	Mean (Strength)	Standard Deviation (Competitiveness)
MLB	53.8	10.8
AL	50.9	11.26
NL	56.7	9.81
AL East	48	13.08
AL Central	47.6	9.69
AL West	57	10.42
NL East	59	11.51
NL Central	54.8	10.69
NL West	56.4	8.88

One of the most interesting divisions is going to be the AL Central, a division which is simultaneously the weakest in the league, but also the second most competitive.

Another division that will be fun to watch is the NL West, which is both the third strongest and the most competitive. Going simply by the top three teams in the division (assuming three-team playoff races), the NL West and the AL Central both have standard deviations of 3.06 and 3.2, respectively, compared to 9.17 in the NL Central, where the Cubs should theoretically run away with the division, and 8.33 in the AL East, where the race should come down to only the Orioles and Yankees. These should be the best division races to watch, with the Twins, Tigers, Indians and White Sox all within striking distance in the AL Central, and the Padres, Dodgers, and yours truly duking it out in the NL West.

One last note - every division in the NL is above the average MLB team strength, whereas only the AL West is above average in the AL. It's a tough time to be an NL team trying to make the playoffs...

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

Well, another season has come and gone, so I thought it was time to evaluate the power rankings that were done pre-season.

To be honest the rankings didn't stack-up as well in 2015, as they had in 2014, but I think this was probably due to a few major changes in this league...1) Increased competitiveness (less teams not making the minimum innings pitched or at-bats....2) Increased changes to rosters throughout the season (particularly through free agency)

In summary-

Teams that over-performed against preseason rankings-
Rockies, Twins, Giants, Brewers & Rays

Teams that under-performed against preseason rankings-
Phillies, Dodgers & Mariners

Bring on 2016

[Rangers GM (Victor)]

Well, this was the most inactivity I have had in this league including not signing ONE FA once the season started. Pretty much after Mid February I just checked Fantrax to set lineup and I barely did that to start the year. So luck has a lot to do with fantasy and I much rather be lucky than good anytime.

Yes, bring on 2016!

[Mariners GM (Nick J)]

WOO 2 years in a row under performing! Next year is going to be different

[Deleted]

I look forward to 2016 with my first offseason and bringing in more players that I want on my team to turn this craphole around!