2016 Power Rankings (Alt)
Mar 27, 2016 10:53:36 GMT -8
Rangers GM (Victor) and Cubs GM (Beau) like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 27, 2016 10:53:36 GMT -8
So, for the last few years, I've thought "what would power rankings look like if I completely removed bias and just accumulated projections for each team?"
SO, that's what I did during my spring break a couple weeks ago. I didn't post them initially, because I didn't want to upstage the Rays at all, since I appreciate the rankings he brings, but I want to post them publicly so we can compare later in the year.
I have a HUGE spreadsheet I can send to people if requested
CRITERIA:
1) All projections (except for Holds) were from Fangraphs and Steamer, rather than ZIPS, because the latter doesn't project saves
2) Holds were taken from Fantrax, which is an issue, because they only project holds for certain relievers who have posted them before
3) I used optimized 8-man starting rosters for the counted stats. Bench players stats are all divided by 5 (best way to approximate a day of playing) [see Weaknesses]
4) I did not discount for bench pitchers, as it's easier to maximize value from every pitcher.
WEAKNESSES:
1) Prospects projections vary wildly and sometimes are almost non-existent
2) Hitting bench is counted, but obviously, it's hard to account for injury potential
3) Holds, Saves, Wins are stupid to project. But we count them, so yeah.
HOW I CAME UP WITH NUMBERS
1) I sorted the stats and assigned value the way Fantrax does, and came up with numbers you will see midseason on their rankings
2) I then used a formula to convert offense and defense values to the 0-40 values the Rays use so these can be more easily compared
ANYWAY, here are my rankings
1) Rockies: 74 (H:39/P:35)
2) Rangers: 65 (H:36/P:29)
3) Cubs: 62 (H:29/P:33)
4) Reds: 62 (H:30/P:32)
5) Nationals: 60 (H:32/P:28)
6) Padres: 58 (H:25/P:33)
7) Yankees: 58 (H:26/P:32)
8) Twins: 54 (H:31/P:23)
9) Indians: 54 (H:27/P:27)
10) Phillies: 52 (H:27/P:25)
11) Giants: 51 (H:33/P:18)
12) Blue Jays: 50 (H:21/P:29)
13) Tigers: 48 (H:33/P:15)
14) Astros: 48 (H:25/P:23)
15) Rays: 44 (H:14/P:30)
16) Angels: 41 (H:29/P:12)
17) Braves: 41 (H:24/P:17)
18) White Sox: 38 (H:23/P:15)
19) Mets: 37 (H:27/P:10)
20) Red Sox: 37 (H:26/P:11)
21) Orioles: 37 (H:20/P:17)
22) Brewers: 36 (H:27/P:9)
23) Dodgers: 35 (H:12/P:23)
24) Pirates: 35 (H:14/P:21)
25) Royals: 33 (H:17/P:16)
26) Diamondbacks: 32 (H:15/P:17)
27) Marlins: 27 (H:16/P:11)
28) Cardinals: 27 (H:17/P:10)
29) Mariners: 25 (H:13/P:12)
30) Athletics: 23 (H:12/P:11)
SO, that's what I did during my spring break a couple weeks ago. I didn't post them initially, because I didn't want to upstage the Rays at all, since I appreciate the rankings he brings, but I want to post them publicly so we can compare later in the year.
I have a HUGE spreadsheet I can send to people if requested
CRITERIA:
1) All projections (except for Holds) were from Fangraphs and Steamer, rather than ZIPS, because the latter doesn't project saves
2) Holds were taken from Fantrax, which is an issue, because they only project holds for certain relievers who have posted them before
3) I used optimized 8-man starting rosters for the counted stats. Bench players stats are all divided by 5 (best way to approximate a day of playing) [see Weaknesses]
4) I did not discount for bench pitchers, as it's easier to maximize value from every pitcher.
WEAKNESSES:
1) Prospects projections vary wildly and sometimes are almost non-existent
2) Hitting bench is counted, but obviously, it's hard to account for injury potential
3) Holds, Saves, Wins are stupid to project. But we count them, so yeah.
HOW I CAME UP WITH NUMBERS
1) I sorted the stats and assigned value the way Fantrax does, and came up with numbers you will see midseason on their rankings
2) I then used a formula to convert offense and defense values to the 0-40 values the Rays use so these can be more easily compared
ANYWAY, here are my rankings
1) Rockies: 74 (H:39/P:35)
2) Rangers: 65 (H:36/P:29)
3) Cubs: 62 (H:29/P:33)
4) Reds: 62 (H:30/P:32)
5) Nationals: 60 (H:32/P:28)
6) Padres: 58 (H:25/P:33)
7) Yankees: 58 (H:26/P:32)
8) Twins: 54 (H:31/P:23)
9) Indians: 54 (H:27/P:27)
10) Phillies: 52 (H:27/P:25)
11) Giants: 51 (H:33/P:18)
12) Blue Jays: 50 (H:21/P:29)
13) Tigers: 48 (H:33/P:15)
14) Astros: 48 (H:25/P:23)
15) Rays: 44 (H:14/P:30)
16) Angels: 41 (H:29/P:12)
17) Braves: 41 (H:24/P:17)
18) White Sox: 38 (H:23/P:15)
19) Mets: 37 (H:27/P:10)
20) Red Sox: 37 (H:26/P:11)
21) Orioles: 37 (H:20/P:17)
22) Brewers: 36 (H:27/P:9)
23) Dodgers: 35 (H:12/P:23)
24) Pirates: 35 (H:14/P:21)
25) Royals: 33 (H:17/P:16)
26) Diamondbacks: 32 (H:15/P:17)
27) Marlins: 27 (H:16/P:11)
28) Cardinals: 27 (H:17/P:10)
29) Mariners: 25 (H:13/P:12)
30) Athletics: 23 (H:12/P:11)
