Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 11, 2017 22:32:57 GMT -8
As requested, I have again meticulously compiled Steamer ratings for every stat for every player on every team, then put them through an algorithm which spit out rankings at me.
Again, my approach to this is designed to remove any personal bias. Biggest change from last year - I heavily adjusted the weight of offensive bench players.
These rankings are not meant to predict championship (or even division) winners. Instead, they should be viewed as how teams would be ranked if this was a roto league. I have not found a way to account for luck in rankings - for example, the Reds had a statistically dominant team last year, but still missed the playoffs because of bad luck in H2H matchups. And in the playoffs, all bets are off, as luck seems to play an even greater factor in the playoffs.
Without further ado, here are the rankings. This year, I scaled scores down to 0-50 for offense and defense in order to get to a max score of 100.
From 30th to 20th....I don't see the improvement (losing Reyes for the year) but I'm not complaining
One of the flaws of using projections is that I can't really account for injuries or call-ups in them. It likes your starting pitching (and Edwin Diaz), but it assumes that Jose de Leon and Tyler Glasnow will be pitching and accumulating innings from the beginning (Steamer has them pegged for 117 and 126 innings respectively), which is probably an erroneous assumption. Still, without some major retooling of my algorithm, it's a difficult issue to correct. If you can hit AB minimums, the system likes your chances at competing in AVG and OPS (in fact, you're top-10 in those two statistics).
So, is it a mirage/flaw in the projections? Maybe, but it's probably also a perhaps-too-early reflection of improvement.
AL Central is always a battle. 7 out of 10 teams at the top of the chart are NL franchises. Boo! Rockies NL bias.
I think the flip side of this is that there is a lot more competition in the AL. The Rangers and the Blue Jays look like clear favorites in their divisions, but 5 points separate 1-3 in the AL Central. And it looks like there are probably 5-6 teams that could really challenge for the wild card slots.
In the NL, you have 3 clear division favorites, and then 3 favorites for the wild card by what isn't an insignificant margin. Anything can happen (injuries, breakouts, sudden declines), but there doesn't appear to be as much turnover in terms of competition in the NL.
Post by White Sox GM (Aidan) on Mar 12, 2017 14:43:50 GMT -8
Like I mentioned last year, to touch on your point, Steamer is notoriously bad/ optimistic when projecting younger players with less big league experience. Thanks for doing these again, should be a fun year!
Padres GM (Amy): @hollah, that is truly brave work
Mar 11, 2024 5:47:59 GMT -8
Reds GM (Pat H.): Hi, my name is Pat and I'm addicted to fantasy baseball.
Mar 11, 2024 6:26:35 GMT -8
Padres GM (Amy): i tried to quit and we see how that went
Mar 11, 2024 6:27:33 GMT -8
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Cardinals GM (John C): Quote from Amy: "Just When I Think I'm Out, They Pull Me Back In."
Mar 14, 2024 6:54:31 GMT -8
Reds GM (Pat H.): We will try Round 5 of the draft on Fantrax. You are able to fill your queue with players now. It doesn't start until Round 4 is over.
Mar 14, 2024 7:24:36 GMT -8
Padres GM (Amy): Pretty sure Yankees pick is invalid as Martorella just released
Mar 17, 2024 13:08:03 GMT -8
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