Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Jun 16, 2017 17:25:44 GMT -8
New Methodology
So, I changed up the methodology of counting stats (rate stats remain the same). Instead of using a starter vs bench method, I found the correlations between total IP/ABs per week and the percentage of counting stats counted vs the total accumulation of the stats. It's imperfect, especially because there's several outliers, but I think it'll be a better system moving forward.
In addition, since we're a little less than halfway through the season, I have added the stats accumulated so far to the stats projected for the rest of the season.
To Come:
With Griffin's help, I'll be spitting out Playoff Odds sometime soon. I'm using a Monte Carlo algorithm with expected winning% from here on out and the records so far. Question - do people just want to see odds of making the playoffs, or would you like me to sim out to the WS and give percentages for each team winning the pennant(s)? It would require more work (I'm creating a program for this purpose in Java), but I'm willing to do it if enough people want to see that.
Post by Brewers GM (Kevin) on Jun 17, 2017 10:19:15 GMT -8
Thanks for the work on this, Dan! Love to see the periodic updates. I've got matchups with you and the Phillies over the next 3 weeks so it'll be interesting to see how that shakes things up.
As far as the future iteration of this, I think it would be cool just to see playoff % for now. And then maybe a little bit closer to the start of the playoffs the WS sim-through would be more applicable.
Padres GM (Amy): @hollah, that is truly brave work
Mar 11, 2024 5:47:59 GMT -8
Reds GM (Pat H.): Hi, my name is Pat and I'm addicted to fantasy baseball.
Mar 11, 2024 6:26:35 GMT -8
Padres GM (Amy): i tried to quit and we see how that went
Mar 11, 2024 6:27:33 GMT -8
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Cardinals GM (John C): Quote from Amy: "Just When I Think I'm Out, They Pull Me Back In."
Mar 14, 2024 6:54:31 GMT -8
Reds GM (Pat H.): We will try Round 5 of the draft on Fantrax. You are able to fill your queue with players now. It doesn't start until Round 4 is over.
Mar 14, 2024 7:24:36 GMT -8
Padres GM (Amy): Pretty sure Yankees pick is invalid as Martorella just released
Mar 17, 2024 13:08:03 GMT -8
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