Playoff Race Analysis (With Odds Update!)
Jul 29, 2018 22:38:15 GMT -8
Cubs GM (Beau), Brewers GM (Kevin), and 3 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Jul 29, 2018 22:38:15 GMT -8
Week 17 Odds
ANALYSIS
Week 16
NL
The Pirates loss (with tiebreakers) against Cleveland really opened the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. There is already a ~94% chance that the NL Playoffs will involve the following five teams: Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals. Which leaves room for only one more NL team. Had the Pirates won, they would have had about an 80% chance to make the playoffs. After losing, the odds for the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both essentially doubled.
AL
As opposed to the NL, the AL playoff race is rather boring. The Astros, Athletics, White Sox, Indians, Rays and Blue Jays all have playoff odds greater than 90%. The only team which could realistically make it as a dark horse would be the Rangers, as the only other team with double-digit odds. With the Blue Jays unexpectedly losing to the Marlins, the door has cracked open just a bit for the Rays to come from behind. Similarly, with the Giants beating the A's this week, the AL West has become the closest division race remaining. Had they won, Oakland would have had an 83.68% chance at the division, a swing of 24.29%
Most Important Upcoming Games
Week 17
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays - 45.46% swing in the division race - Should the Rays pull off the upset, their odds at the division skyrockets to 46.18%. If the Jays win, they all but sew up the division.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers - If the Cubs win, their odds to make the playoffs have the potential to double, depending on the outcome of other games.
Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates - If the Pirates want to keep the Cubs and Reds off their heels, they need this win. If the Cubs win the game above and the Pirates lose this one, they pull even, with both at about 40% to make the playoffs. Because the Reds are expected to win their game against the Cardinals, the most they can reach is ~30% if they take care of business and the Pirates lose.
Honorable Mention - Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants - If the Rockies win this game, they sew up the division (and hopefully stop talking in 3rd person). However, a Giants win still only gives them about a 5% chance at the division.
Week 18
Cubs vs Reds & Brewers vs Pirates should give us some clarification in the NL Central slugfest.
Outside of those games, barring some major upsets, not too much playoff implications in the games this week.
Week 19
Reds vs Brewers - more NL Central fun
Week 20
Astros vs Athletics - could decide that division race
Cubs vs Pirates - NL Central intrigue
Week 21
Indians vs White Sox - may not have direct playoff implications, but could this be a preview of a playoff matchup?
Reds vs Pirates - NL Central. If it's not already decided by this week, we may be looking at a win and you're in, loser goes home scenario.
| NL West | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Arizona | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.32 |
| Colorado | 98.68% | 1.32% | 100% | 17.63 |
| Los Angeles | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.36 |
| San Diego | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.84 |
| San Francisco | 1.32% | 98.58% | 99.9% | 15.13 |
| NL Central | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Chicago | 0.09% | 22.48% | 22.57% | 12.43 |
| Cincinnati | 0.42% | 22.76% | 23.18% | 12.06 |
| Milwaukee | 95.05% | 4.81% | 99.86% | 15.85 |
| Pittsburgh | 4.45% | 55.85% | 60.3% | 12.89 |
| St. Louis | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.15 |
| NL East | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Atlanta | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.04 |
| Miami | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.13 |
| New York | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 10.46 |
| Philadelphia | 0% | 94.1% | 94.1% | 14.23 |
| Washington | 100% | 0% | 100% | 18.68 |
| AL West | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Houston | 40.17% | 53.31% | 93.48% | 14.06 |
| Los Angeles | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.65 |
| Oakland | 59.31% | 40.25% | 99.56% | 14.9 |
| Seattle | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.07 |
| Texas | 0.52% | 18.03% | 18.55% | 12.04 |
| AL Central | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Chicago | 3.13% | 88.29% | 91.42% | 13.51 |
| Cleveland | 96.87% | 3.13% | 100% | 16.43 |
| Detroit | 0% | 0.66% | 0.66% | 9.92 |
| Kansas City | 0% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 9.97 |
| Minnesota | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.78 |
| AL East | Division% | Wild Card % | Total Playoff % | Average Wins |
| Baltimore | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.07 |
| Boston | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0.31 |
| New York | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.25 |
| Tampa Bay | 5.66% | 90.23% | 95.9% | 14.21 |
| Toronto | 94.34% | 5.64% | 99.98% | 15.62 |
ANALYSIS
Week 16
NL
The Pirates loss (with tiebreakers) against Cleveland really opened the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. There is already a ~94% chance that the NL Playoffs will involve the following five teams: Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, and Washington Nationals. Which leaves room for only one more NL team. Had the Pirates won, they would have had about an 80% chance to make the playoffs. After losing, the odds for the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds both essentially doubled.
AL
As opposed to the NL, the AL playoff race is rather boring. The Astros, Athletics, White Sox, Indians, Rays and Blue Jays all have playoff odds greater than 90%. The only team which could realistically make it as a dark horse would be the Rangers, as the only other team with double-digit odds. With the Blue Jays unexpectedly losing to the Marlins, the door has cracked open just a bit for the Rays to come from behind. Similarly, with the Giants beating the A's this week, the AL West has become the closest division race remaining. Had they won, Oakland would have had an 83.68% chance at the division, a swing of 24.29%
Most Important Upcoming Games
Week 17
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays - 45.46% swing in the division race - Should the Rays pull off the upset, their odds at the division skyrockets to 46.18%. If the Jays win, they all but sew up the division.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers - If the Cubs win, their odds to make the playoffs have the potential to double, depending on the outcome of other games.
Chicago White Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates - If the Pirates want to keep the Cubs and Reds off their heels, they need this win. If the Cubs win the game above and the Pirates lose this one, they pull even, with both at about 40% to make the playoffs. Because the Reds are expected to win their game against the Cardinals, the most they can reach is ~30% if they take care of business and the Pirates lose.
Honorable Mention - Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants - If the Rockies win this game, they sew up the division (and hopefully stop talking in 3rd person). However, a Giants win still only gives them about a 5% chance at the division.
Week 18
Cubs vs Reds & Brewers vs Pirates should give us some clarification in the NL Central slugfest.
Outside of those games, barring some major upsets, not too much playoff implications in the games this week.
Week 19
Reds vs Brewers - more NL Central fun
Week 20
Astros vs Athletics - could decide that division race
Cubs vs Pirates - NL Central intrigue
Week 21
Indians vs White Sox - may not have direct playoff implications, but could this be a preview of a playoff matchup?
Reds vs Pirates - NL Central. If it's not already decided by this week, we may be looking at a win and you're in, loser goes home scenario.
