2018 Trade deadline podcast

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

So once again, Hollar and I have done this podcast thing. If you'd like to listen, here it is...

drive.google.com/open?id=1mTSyGmoHqOErF-GKeiwq9__tMsiFh_1b

Comments are always appreciated.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

In the defense of the program:

I sim actual games using actual stats, and using tie-breakers. I have the tie-breaker over the Giants at the moment (H2H: 1-1, so goes to conference record. I have 4 losses in the NL, Giants have 5) which means that they can't win the division if they tie. So I actually need to lose two games and they need to win two more than me.

Let's look at those games:

Week 18:
Rockies vs Diamondbacks (6-11)
Giants vs Angels (3-14)

Week 19:
Rockies vs Dodgers (2-15)
Giants vs Padres (7-10, and having sold most players)

Week 20:
Rockies vs Mariners (7-10)
Giants vs Dodgers (2-15)

Week 21:
Rockies vs Padres (7-10, see note above)
Giants vs Diamondbacks (6-11)

So, what the program sees is that both teams are heavily favored in each of their remaining games. Therefore, it sees that, while it is possible that bad luck happens and I drop two of these games where the Giants don't, that doesn't happen 96.48% of the time (96,480 times out of 100,000 in the last simulation). Now, the tie-breaker could change if one of the teams I lose to is in the NL (and that's already baked into the program). But my most challenging of those games is probably against the Mariners, which wouldn't affect the tie-breaker. Meanwhile, this all assumes that no bad luck befalls the Giants.

Basically, it's possible that I don't win the division, but to look at the program and call the methodology wrong without knowing what the methodology actually is? Please don't do that.

I am very willing to give ANYONE in the league the code to look it over and check for biases, but I can tell you it treats my team no different than any other team in the league.

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

Well argued, Dan. I'm glad you listened!

I certainly respect the work you've done on this, but my skepticism in this and all things is pervasive. I firmly retain the right to question all things I don't really understand.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

I've got no issue with anyone posing a question. I just wish people wouldn't dismiss it as worthless without asking those questions.

I'm a graduate student, actor, playwright and an academic. I'm all about peer review

[Cubs GM (Beau)]

This is a Fantrax player update on Mondesi. So we found the one higher on Mondesi than me lol:

Kansas City Royals middle infielder Adalberto Mondesi got shut out at the plate for the first time in nine games, but the streak still raised his batting average up to .281, an excellent number for a player who just turned 23 years old. Mondesi is the team's expected shortstop of the future, and there have been some growing pains, but he appears to be settling in and getting comfortable. He also took advantage of the Yankees by stealing a trio of bases over the four-game series, bringing him to eight on the season. As long as he can focus on making regular contact and not getting too greedy on the basepaths, Mondesi should be a 20/40 threat in future seasons.

[Marlins GM (Mike J)]

Listened to the podcast this morning and got a good laugh on the Beau sections lol. Out of curiosity I did just look at how Mondesi was doing and not to shabby. Fangraphs has a podcast and that guy is a believer in mondesi but only 10 homer potential dont get too greedy with 20 homer expectations. I was a believer in Mondesi and planned on keeping him until I realized 6.25M for a growing pain youngsters is a little rough... Thanks Beau for taking him back!!! Until he goes 10/40 then ill roll my eyes but with that K rate they better take the Willy Mays Hays-like approach and make do pushups everytime he strikes out...