2019 In-Season Playoff Odds Update

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

I will be updating playoff odds every so often during the season. While the odds do change every single week, usually it'll be more of an incremental change. Whereas bi-weekly and especially monthly, you'll see drastic changes in odds sometimes. Please vote at the top to let me know how often you'd like me to update. I can provide odds updates weekly, but graphs tend to take longer.

Without further ado, with a very interesting week 1 behind us (seriously, who would have predicted the Dodgers upsetting the Nationals?), let's take a look at updated predictions.

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	0.01%	0.01%	5.51
Colorado Rockies	77.51%	22.46%	99.97%	18.5
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.13%	0.13%	6.95
San Diego Padres	0.35%	57.77%	58.12%	13.06
San Francisco Giants	22.14%	77%	99.14%	16.91

Win Spread




NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	86.57%	11.32%	97.89%	16.43
Cincinnati Reds	0.16%	3.75%	3.92%	9.44
Milwaukee Brewers	4.25%	34.43%	38.68%	11.96
Pittsburgh Pirates	9.02%	51.47%	60.49%	13.17
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.28

Win Spread




NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	38.26%	15.83%	54.09%	12.67
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	4.13
New York Mets	10.27%	9.14%	19.41%	11.04
Philadelphia Phillies	2.12%	2.09%	4.21%	8.86
Washington Nationals	49.34%	14.6%	63.94%	12.92

Win Spread



AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0.52%	8.82%	9.34%	9.5
Los Angeles Angels	64.85%	31.27%	96.12%	15.51
Oakland Athletics	30.94%	56.2%	87.14%	14.04
Seattle Mariners	3.69%	33.26%	36.95%	11.64
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	1.19

Win Spread



AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	9.7%	52.42%	62.13%	12.57
Cleveland Indians	89.65%	8.89%	98.53%	15.93
Detroit Tigers	0.01%	0.24%	0.25%	6.77
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	2.63
Minnesota Twins	0.64%	12.15%	12.79%	10.15

Win Spread




AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0%	0%	4.19
Boston Red Sox	0%	0.05%	0.05%	6.31
New York Yankees	0.02%	10.29%	10.31%	9.76
Tampa Bay Rays	4.29%	82.15%	86.44%	13.88
Toronto Blue Jays	95.69%	4.27%	99.96%	18.1

Win Spread

[Nationals GM (Preston - Old)]

Uh oh.

[Brewers GM (Kevin)]

Hey Hollar 👋🏻 It’s me again, your friendly neighborhood cellar dweller Brewers

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

If my team keeps playing like Week 1, I would prefer that you never update these. Which poll option is that?

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

No graphs this week, but a majority of voters wanted weekly updates.

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	0.04%	0.04%	6.64
Colorado Rockies	70.47%	29.43%	99.9%	17.86
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0%	0%	5.73
San Diego Padres	1.5%	76.95%	78.44%	14.07
San Francisco Giants	28.03%	70.92%	98.95%	16.88

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	84.27%	12.38%	96.65%	15.99
Cincinnati Reds	0.12%	1.96%	2.09%	8.9
Milwaukee Brewers	2.57%	22.95%	25.52%	11.5
Pittsburgh Pirates	13.03%	49.32%	62.35%	13.26
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.22

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	79.46%	7.69%	87.15%	14.63
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	4.53
New York Mets	6.98%	10.02%	17%	11.09
Philadelphia Phillies	1.09%	1.97%	3.07%	8.77
Washington Nationals	12.47%	16.37%	28.84%	11.37

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0.1%	2.24%	2.35%	8.68
Los Angeles Angels	75.28%	21.67%	96.95%	15.99
Oakland Athletics	18.32%	55.31%	73.63%	13.43
Seattle Mariners	6.29%	39.57%	45.86%	12.45
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	1.16

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	29.2%	60.07%	89.27%	14.55
Cleveland Indians	70.44%	26.82%	97.27%	15.64
Detroit Tigers	0%	0.01%	0.01%	5.75
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	2.56
Minnesota Twins	0.36%	8.46%	8.82%	10.2

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0.01%	0.01%	5.71
Boston Red Sox	0%	0.03%	0.03%	6.32
New York Yankees	0.24%	8.43%	8.66%	10.12
Tampa Bay Rays	17.07%	61.39%	78.46%	13.7
Toronto Blue Jays	82.69%	15.99%	98.67%	16.29

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

How about an update?

[Giants GM (Griffin)]

Guaranteed NL West is projected for more wins than AL Central

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

While the method is sound, clearly that projection would be wrong. 😀

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Apologies for the lack of updates - just moved back to Pennsylvania from Florida, and my mom just got a bone marrow transplant a couple weeks ago (still in the hospital). So I've been MIA this year a bit.

[Royals GM (Mac - Retired)]

May 25, 2019 13:00:18 GMT -8 Rockies GM (Dan) said:

Apologies for the lack of updates - just moved back to Pennsylvania from Florida, and my mom just got a bone marrow transplant a couple weeks ago (still in the hospital). So I've been MIA this year a bit.

All prayers to your mom for a healthy recovery

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Finally, an update. Apologies for no graphs, but life is still kind of hectic. Thankfully my mother is out of the hospital, but I'm unemployed and taking care of her is almost a full-time job at the moment.

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	2.94%	2.94%	9.7
Colorado Rockies	23.73%	76.26%	99.99%	16.94
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.12%	0.12%	7.94
San Diego Padres	0%	49.55%	49.55%	11.15
San Francisco Giants	76.27%	23.73%	100%	18.56

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	69.59%	29.94%	99.53%	15.1
Cincinnati Reds	0.01%	1.69%	1.7%	8.96
Milwaukee Brewers	0.86%	34.13%	34.99%	12.01
Pittsburgh Pirates	29.55%	68.09%	97.64%	15.46
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.5

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	61.91%	4.18%	66.09%	12.27
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	5.09
New York Mets	13.63%	5.93%	19.57%	10.87
Philadelphia Phillies	2.27%	0.55%	8.43%	8.43
Washington Nationals	22.19%	2.86%	25.05%	10.85

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	1.33%	1.33%	8.18
Los Angeles Angels	99.96%	0.04%	100%	18.52
Oakland Athletics	0.01%	40.43%	40.44%	10.9
Seattle Mariners	0.03%	48.13%	48.16%	11.53
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.43

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	33.86%	65.91%	99.77%	15.49
Cleveland Indians	42.36%	57.54%	99.9%	15.68
Detroit Tigers	0%	0.02%	0.02%	6.96
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	2.05
Minnesota Twins	23.78%	75.8%	99.58%	15.21

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0.16%	0.16%	6.89
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	4.57
New York Yankees	0.81%	9.07%	9.88%	9.9
Tampa Bay Rays	99.09%	0.4%	99.49%	14.69
Toronto Blue Jays	0.1%	1.16%	1.26%	8.19

Notes:

The NL East is fascinating. The power ranking system has the Nationals finishing as the 4th best team in the league, best place in the division (the Braves are 9th, while the Mets are 13th). It has everything to do with remaining Strength of Schedule. While Washington has a .527 remaining SOS, including bouts against Pittsburgh, Colorado, San Francisco, and Cleveland, Atlanta has only a .364 remaining SOS, with Milwaukee and Arizona being their only upcoming opponents currently over .500. Also, while the computer only sees the Marlins winning one more game on average, I wouldn't bet against this scrappy club.

I haven't taken a look yet at the AL Central, but the computer likes Cleveland as the 3rd best team in the league by the end, factoring in projections with the current stats. It should, perhaps, be noted that up to this date, Cleveland has been one of the most unlucky teams according to projections, while Chicago has been one of the luckiest.


Speaking of which, I ran the past 10 weeks through the program using nothing but the accumulated statistics up until this point. Here are the unluckiest teams:

Washington Nationals
Expected wins: 6.655; Actual wins: 4; Difference: -2.655

It's really hard to pin just why the Nationals have underwhelmed to this point. Fantrax has them as the 6th best offense, 9th best pitching staff, and 6th best team overall. And yet, they, along with the rest of the NL East is at 4-6. Sure, there's been some injuries, but really, sometimes you just repeatedly get unlucky. Look at the Reds from a couple years ago, statistically the 10th best team in the league (IIRC), but missed out on the playoffs.

Toronto Blue Jays
Expected wins: 6.111; Actual wins: 4; Difference: -2.111

Several of their big bats got off to sub-optimal starts. Toronto, instead of riding out bad luck, decided to fold the cards and rebuild. Jose Ramirez still is a shell of the player he has been, and Toronto sold Seager when his value was at its absolute lowest - he's since rebounded quite nicely for his new team, the Dodgers. Had they shown a bit more patience, the computer still saw the division as winnable when the firesale began.

Colorado Rockies
Expected wins: 8.427; Actual wins: 7: Difference: -1.427

The Rockies have had a mixture of just odd luck and some bad timing with injuries. They happened to run into Atlanta during their best week, when no one in the league could have beaten them. They lost to a good Cleveland team, and then lost Carlos Correa for 6 weeks, followed days later on the IL by their backup MI in Neil Walker. The Rockies currently have six offensive players on the IL, and even Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger couldn't power them past the Pirates this last week.

Other underperforming teams:

Cleveland Indians
Expected wins: 7.816; Actual wins: 7; Difference: -0.816
Philadelphia Phillies
Expected wins: 4.756; Actual wins: 4; Difference: -0.756


Luckiest Teams:

Miami Marlins
Expected wins: 2.023; Actual wins: 4; Difference: 1.977
Detroit Tigers
Expected wins: 2.485; Actual wins: 4; Difference: 1.515
Los Angeles Angels
Expected wins: 7.506; Actual wins: 9; Difference: 1.494
Chicago Cubs
Expected wins: 5.656; Actual wins: 7; Difference: 1.344
Chicago White Sox
Expected wins: 8.031; Actual wins: 9; Difference: 0.969

[Marlins GM (Mike J)]

You call it luck, I call it proving doubters wrong!!! :-P

ps hope all gets better with your mom good to hear shes out of the hospital.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Jun 10, 2019 3:04:38 GMT -8 Marlins GM (Mike J) said:

You call it luck, I call it proving doubters wrong!!! :-P

ps hope all gets better with your mom good to hear shes out of the hospital.

Thanks. Also said I'd bet on you to outperform the single win it projects you for the rest of the way. If you keep being the outlier you've been, you might be the reason I reexamine algorithm this off-season.

Speaking of which, the average margin of error for every team was under +-.9 games. That's actually pretty darn good, I'd say. 10 weeks is still a relatively small sample size, so for the r-squares to already be over .8 shows this is definitely on the right track

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

Do these projections take into consideration trades.

If so I’d be interested in the changes in projections of both my Rays and the Dodgers following the Springer/Renfroe & Sale/Giolito trade.

Good to hear your mum is getting better.

Once she’s well enough for you to travel I’ve got a job for you in Australia, using your statistical knowledge.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Jun 10, 2019 5:36:06 GMT -8 Rays GM (Donavan) said:

Do these projections take into consideration trades.

If so I’d be interested in the changes in projections of both my Rays and the Dodgers following the Springer/Renfroe & Sale/Giolito trade.

They do - I have a script that uses an automated Firefox to sign into Fantrax and download all current rosters.

Looks like the trade is a win-win for both sides for this season, at least.

Your playoff odds improved by 0.48% (which, you were already at 99.01% with the trade reversed. Hard to improve greatly on that), and average wins improved about a third of a win (0.315, to be precise).

More importantly, some information I don't release publicly is that I also sim the playoffs each of the 100,000 iterations. Last year, it pegged the Blue Jays at around 40% making the world series and around 25% at winning the title. For you, the odds of you winning the AL increased with the trade from 19.57% to 25.68%, and your odds at the championship went from 5.77% to 8.5%.

Meanwhile, the Rays see improvement, although more on a smaller scale. Their average wins improved about a tenth of a win, and their shot at the playoffs improved 0.05% from 0.07% to 0.12%.

-----------------------

For anyone interested in the playoff odds, here are the current frontrunners to make the world series:

NL
San Francisco Giants - 45.53%
Colorado Rockies - 37.12%
Chicago Cubs - 7.55%
Pittsburgh Pirates - 5.46%
Atlanta Braves - 1.92%

AL
Los Angeles Angels - 30.49%
Cleveland Indians - 26.73%
Tampa Bay Rays - 25.68%
Chicago White Sox - 9.8%
Minnesota Twins - 6.88%


And the projected WS odds:

San Francisco Giants - 33.39%
Colorado Rockies - 27.01%
Los Angeles Angels - 9.2%
Cleveland Indians - 8.98%
Tampa Bay Rays - 8.5%

[Braves GM (Dustin)]

So you're saying there's a chance!

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Luckiest Teams:

Miami Marlins
Expected wins: 2.023; Actual wins: 4; Difference: 1.977
Detroit Tigers
Expected wins: 2.485; Actual wins: 4; Difference: 1.515
Los Angeles Angels
Expected wins: 7.506; Actual wins: 9; Difference: 1.494
Chicago Cubs
Expected wins: 5.656; Actual wins: 7; Difference: 1.344
Chicago White Sox
Expected wins: 8.031; Actual wins: 9; Difference: 0.969


Where did the D-backs land? the Dodgers? the Twins? any teams that are crushing their pre season predictions? Seems like those teams are at least 1 to 2 games above expectations.

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

And I notice you didn’t say no to working in Australia...

[Guardians GM (Matt)]

I think I have lost one, if not two tie breaker games. So of it is my fault for going away over the weekend without internet and not setting lineups ahead of time

[Diamondbacks GM (Ethan)]

The Diamondbacks are meeting the expectations of the Diamondbacks