2019 In-Season Playoff Odds Update

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Jun 10, 2019 13:22:22 GMT -8 Former Angels GM (Mike C.) said:

Where did the D-backs land? the Dodgers? the Twins? any teams that are crushing their pre season predictions? Seems like those teams are at least 1 to 2 games above expectations.

This exercise was done with the numbers teams have actually accumulated, looking at the Season Stats tab under the league Standings page on Fantrax. The point wasn't to do a retrospective of accuracy against the preseason projections, which only used Fangraphs' Depth Charts projections (used mostly because they're one of the few projection systems to include Holds), so preseason win averages aren't taken into account. The computer would expect a team with Arizona's to-date schedule and statistical output to have won 5.336 of their games, and they've won 6. Similarly, it puts the Dodgers at 4.732, and they've won 5. Twins average 7.908 games won given the parameters, so the simulation comes within .082 wins of nailing that one.

Also, I'll repeat the refrain that the average win numbers are pretty useless. I include them because it's easier to gauge variation and standard deviation from the guesses. However, most win totals for any given team capped at a max of 20% during the preseason. The current outlook for the Diamondbacks is just shy of 10. That fits with the model, where 10 wins for Arizona still happened about 7% of the time. As long as the outcome appears within the meatier part of the bell-curve, it's generally a pretty good outcome. I'll still check for biases at the end of the season, and if Arizona continues to outperform expectations, it could force a look at how statistic accumulation functions. The simulation part of the program, given strong correlation using real-life statistics, seems to be on the right track.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Jun 10, 2019 13:22:34 GMT -8 Rays GM (Donavan) said:

And I notice you didn’t say no to working in Australia...

Always wanted to travel the world.

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

In doing some bias tests against the predictions, I noticed a couple things that I could fix. The program seemed to be overrating bad teams ever so slightly, for a start. So, I implemented a change I've been wanting to make for a while:

I had been simulating the each stat category for each matchup based on where that team ranked in that stat (i.e. 30 points for the top team in Rs, 1 point for the bottom team). After today, the program will base the winning percentages for categories on the Z-score. That is, essentially the variance of the overall statistic compared to the rest of the league. If a team has far more or far less than the majority of the league in any given statistic, the program will take that into account.

So far, I'm noticing that it fixed the problem of the basement teams. For example, the Rangers are now estimated to accrue an average of 0.01149 wins instead of .4. Meanwhile, teams that are towards the bottom of the standings on statistics but more roughly towards the mean are ranked higher - the Marlins added another .5 win, for example.

tl;dr - if you notice a seemingly big change in percentages next week with little rhyme/reason (my odds at the NL West were cut roughly in half), there is in fact a reason. It should theoretically be even more accurate now.

[Marlins GM (Mike J)]

All hail the Marlins 🙌🙌🙌

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	11.07%	11.07%	10.87
Colorado Rockies	2.76%	96.84%	99.61%	15.52
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.06%	0.06%	7.87
San Diego Padres	0%	36.14%	36.15%	10.91
San Francisco Giants	97.23%	2.77%	100%	18.93

Win Spread



NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	83.29%	16.48%	99.77%	15.61
Cincinnati Reds	0.04%	7.23%	7.27%	10.26
Milwaukee Brewers	0.94%	47.62%	48.57%	12.48
Pittsburgh Pirates	15.72%	78.37%	94.1%	14.99
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.12

Win Spread



NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	59.93%	0.72%	60.65%	11.42
Miami Marlins	0.01%	0%	0.01%	5.58
New York Mets	19.12%	2.02%	21.14%	10.46
Philadelphia Phillies	9.05%	0.4%	9.45%	8.92
Washington Nationals	11.89%	0.27%	12.16%	9.46

Win Spread



AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	2.01%	2.01%	8.7
Los Angeles Angels	99.97%	0.03%	100%	18.67
Oakland Athletics	0%	40.84%	40.84%	11.16
Seattle Mariners	0.02%	51.21%	51.23%	11.97
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.01

Win Spread




AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	68.98%	30.97%	99.95%	16.43
Cleveland Indians	21.81%	77.48%	99.29%	15.06
Detroit Tigers	0%	0.04%	0.04%	7.45
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.24
Minnesota Twins	9.21%	88.99%	98.2%	14.5

Win Spread



AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0.01%	0.11%	0.12%	7.14
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	5.16
New York Yankees	2.14%	7.36%	9.5%	10.06
Tampa Bay Rays	97.69%	0.72%	98.41%	14.2
Toronto Blue Jays	0.16%	0.24%	0.4%	7.86

Win Spread

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Already found something that was skewing results gained from the new Z-Score-based probabilities. The way I notate teams that shouldn't accrue enough innings or at-bats per week was devaluing some teams at the top of categories like ERA, WHIP, AVG, and OPS. This is the result after fixing the issue.

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.01%	25.05%	25.05%	11.66
Colorado Rockies	2.73%	96.62%	99.35%	15.41
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.06%	0.06%	7.87
San Diego Padres	0%	30.91%	30.92%	10.81
San Francisco Giants	97.26%	2.74%	100%	18.89

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	82.51%	17.25%	99.75%	15.64
Cincinnati Reds	0.02%	5.08%	5.1%	10.11
Milwaukee Brewers	0.59%	40.01%	40.6%	12.19
Pittsburgh Pirates	16.89%	78.21%	95.1%	15.15
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.17

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	55.5%	0.98%	56.48%	11.37
Miami Marlins	0.01%	0%	0.01%	5.34
New York Mets	21.87%	2.35%	24.22%	10.69
Philadelphia Phillies	7.35%	0.35%	7.7%	8.8
Washington Nationals	15.28%	0.38%	15.66%	9.79

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	1.95%	1.95%	8.6
Los Angeles Angels	99.99%	0.01%	100%	18.62
Oakland Athletics	0%	51.08%	51.09%	11.31
Seattle Mariners	0.01%	39.62%	39.63%	11.54
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.01

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	67.39%	32.57%	99.97%	16.48
Cleveland Indians	24.63%	74.95%	99.58%	15.24
Detroit Tigers	0%	0.01%	0.01%	7.26
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.24
Minnesota Twins	7.98%	90.57%	98.55%	14.45

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0.01%	0.08%	0.09%	6.83
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	4.98
New York Yankees	2.16%	7.55%	9.7%	10.02
Tampa Bay Rays	97.42%	0.85%	98.27%	14.14
Toronto Blue Jays	0.42%	0.73%	1.15%	8.41

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.02%	49.06%	49.08%	12.41
Colorado Rockies	1.85%	97.88%	99.73%	15.49
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.03%	0.03%	7.69
San Diego Padres	0%	7.85%	7.85%	9.69
San Francisco Giants	98.13%	1.87%	100%	19.05

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	71.63%	28.09%	99.72%	15.51
Cincinnati Reds	0%	2.29%	2.3%	9.66
Milwaukee Brewers	0.12%	32.35%	32.47%	11.71
Pittsburgh Pirates	28.24%	70.72%	98.96%	15.83
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.19

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	52.46%	1.99%	54.45%	11.47
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	5.35
New York Mets	31.39%	6.34%	37.73%	11.38
Philadelphia Phillies	12.1%	1.29%	13.38%	9.67
Washington Nationals	4.06%	0.26%	4.31%	8.99

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	3.75%	3.75%	9.4
Los Angeles Angels	99.99%	0.01%	100%	18.8
Oakland Athletics	0%	46.38%	46.38%	11.43
Seattle Mariners	0.01%	49%	49.01%	12.01
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.01

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	57.2%	42.73%	99.92%	16.12
Cleveland Indians	39.72%	60.17%	99.88%	15.67
Detroit Tigers	0%	0.02%	0.02%	7.32
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.17
Minnesota Twins	3.09%	93.89%	96.97%	13.94

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	6.84
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	4.79
New York Yankees	1.96%	3.36%	5.32%	9.6
Tampa Bay Rays	97.25%	0.4%	97.64%	13.43
Toronto Blue Jays	0.78%	0.3%	1.08%	8.37

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Wild Card Race

Here are the current odds at winning a wild card berth. Current division winners are excluded, even if they aren't the favorite to win the division in the long run (see Braves vs. Mets). Also, to be included, the team must have a >5% chance at the playoffs. The percentages here are taken from the times that the teams won a wild card divided by every iteration that team did not win the division, which is why numbers will look different from above.

NL

Team	WC Odds
Colorado Rockies	99.72%
Pittsburgh Pirates	98.55%
Arizona Diamondbacks	49.07%
Milwaukee Brewers	32.39%
San Diego Padres	7.85%
Atlanta Braves	4.19%
Philadelphia Phillies	1.47%

AL

Team	WC Odds
Cleveland Indians	99.82%
Minnesota Twins	96.88%
Seattle Mariners	49%
Oakland Athletics	46.38%
New York Yankees	3.43%

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Note: corrected a Week 8 matchup in the program, where I erroneously had Seattle beating Tampa. When putting in these things manually, mistakes are bound to happen. While Seattle is still in the driver's seat for that final AL Wild Card, it took them from about a 70% chance to just under 50%

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	41.8%	41.8%	12.12
Colorado Rockies	1.21%	98.7%	99.91%	15.73
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.01%	0.01%	7.34
San Diego Padres	0%	7.22%	7.22%	9.58
San Francisco Giants	98.79%	1.21%	100%	19.26

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	60.87%	38.47%	99.33%	14.73
Cincinnati Reds	0.03%	9.89%	9.92%	10.71
Milwaukee Brewers	0.23%	28.33%	28.56%	11.53
Pittsburgh Pirates	38.88%	59.88%	98.76%	15.66
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.35

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	57.52%	2.85%	60.37%	11.82
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	5.18
New York Mets	23.13%	8.96%	32.08%	11.36
Philadelphia Phillies	18.57%	2.62%	21.2%	10.46
Washington Nationals	0.78%	0.07%	0.85%	8.3

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	4.87%	4.87%	9.75
Los Angeles Angels	100%	0%	100%	18.82
Oakland Athletics	0%	32.58%	32.58%	10.99
Seattle Mariners	0%	45.08%	45.08%	11.88
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.02

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	31.71%	67.96%	99.67%	15.12
Cleveland Indians	61.52%	38.43%	99.95%	16.03
Detroit Tigers	0%	0%	0%	6.96
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.12
Minnesota Twins	6.77%	92.42%	99.19%	14.47

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0.04%	0.01%	0.06%	6.99
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	5.44
New York Yankees	10.59%	13.83%	24.42%	10.84
Tampa Bay Rays	89.3%	4.8%	94.09%	13.28
Toronto Blue Jays	0.07%	0.02%	0.09%	7.16

Wildcard Races

[Mariners GM (Nick J)]

I dont like these changes, put it back to when my team was at 70%

[Rays GM (Donavan)]

I'm amazed how accurate Dan's data based predictions are when the same players can perform so differently from 1 week to the next.

Rays starting pitching - week 15 - 79.2 IP, 33 ER, 3.7 ERA, 8 W

So far the same starting pitching in week 16 - 23.1 IP, 33 ER, 12.7 ERA, 1 W

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.01%	75.89%	75.9%	13.58
Colorado Rockies	0.66%	99.22%	99.88%	15.93
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0%	0%	8.29
San Diego Padres	0%	0.03%	0.03%	8.88
San Francisco Giants	99.33%	0.67%	100%	19.32

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	59.68%	30.59%	90.27%	13.41
Cincinnati Reds	0.26%	2.37%	2.63%	10.77
Milwaukee Brewers	7.87%	33.6%	41.47%	12.67
Pittsburgh Pirates	32.2%	50.02%	82.21%	14.28
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	1.05

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	5.53%	0.21%	5.74%	10.34
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	4.85
New York Mets	39.09%	5.57%	44.65%	12.42
Philadelphia Phillies	55.38%	1.84%	57.22%	12.3
Washington Nationals	0%	0%	0%	7.31

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	6.13%	6.13%	10.22
Los Angeles Angels	100%	0%	100%	19.33
Oakland Athletics	0%	80.28%	80.28%	12.44
Seattle Mariners	0%	9.14%	9.14%	11
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.01

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	3.61%	94.08%	97.69%	13.35
Cleveland Indians	80.58%	19.42%	100%	16.01
Detroit Tigers	0%	0%	0%	6.26
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.09
Minnesota Twins	15.81%	84.19%	100%	15.11

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0%	0%	7.2
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	5.28
New York Yankees	2.91%	5.07%	7.98%	10.56
Tampa Bay Rays	97.09%	1.69%	98.78%	13.89
Toronto Blue Jays	0%	0%	0%	6.85

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Here is a proposed solution to the Dodgers dilemma. This doesn't take YTD results into consideration, instead relying solely on projections. I'll be posting both for the sake of attempting to determine which is more accurate

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.01%	58.3%	58.31%	13.01
Colorado Rockies	2.59%	97.22%	99.81%	15.89
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0.07%	0.07%	9.43
San Diego Padres	0%	0.06%	0.06%	8.75
San Francisco Giants	97.39%	2.61%	100%	18.93

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	86.21%	11.97%	98.18%	14.08
Cincinnati Reds	0.15%	6.01%	6.16%	10.81
Milwaukee Brewers	3.27%	46.24%	49.51%	12.56
Pittsburgh Pirates	10.36%	65.27%	75.64%	13.78
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0.93

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	9.51%	1.2%	10.71%	10.79
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	5.25
New York Mets	36.98%	7.62%	44.6%	12.37
Philadelphia Phillies	53.51%	3.45%	56.95%	12.33
Washington Nationals	0%	0%	0%	6.25

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	8.67%	8.67%	10.32
Los Angeles Angels	100%	0%	100%	19.13
Oakland Athletics	0%	68.75%	68.75%	12.32
Seattle Mariners	0%	21.34%	21.34%	11.2
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0.01

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	1.52%	94.55%	96.07%	13.08
Cleveland Indians	86.55%	13.45%	100%	16.19
Detroit Tigers	0%	0%	0%	6.3
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.2
Minnesota Twins	11.94%	88.06%	100%	15.08

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0%	0%	7.26
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	5.31
New York Yankees	1.54%	4.3%	5.84%	10.3
Tampa Bay Rays	98.46%	0.88%	99.33%	13.98
Toronto Blue Jays	0%	0%	0%	7.15

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

NL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Arizona Diamondbacks	0%	73.61%	73.62%	13.37
Colorado Rockies	1.45%	98.52%	99.97%	16.06
Los Angeles Dodgers	0%	0%	0%	8.72
San Diego Padres	0%	0%	0%	8.49
San Francisco Giants	98.54%	1.46%	100%	19.15

NL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago Cubs	63.02%	28.33%	91.36%	13.06
Cincinnati Reds	0.88%	12.23%	13.1%	11.66
Milwaukee Brewers	4.23%	20.91%	25.15%	12.13
Pittsburgh Pirates	31.87%	49.92%	81.79%	13.93
St. Louis Cardinals	0%	0%	0%	0.73

NL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Atlanta Braves	5.46%	0.44%	5.9%	10.82
Miami Marlins	0%	0%	0%	4.87
New York Mets	59.03%	10.36%	69.39%	13.07
Philadelphia Phillies	35.51%	4.22%	39.73%	12.23
Washington Nationals	0%	0%	0%	5.96

AL West

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Houston Astros	0%	4.77%	4.77%	9.94
Los Angeles Angels	100%	0%	100%	19.58
Oakland Athletics	0%	77.84%	77.84%	12.29
Seattle Mariners	0%	18.01%	18.01%	11.4
Texas Rangers	0%	0%	0%	0

AL Central

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Chicago White Sox	1.49%	96.17%	97.66%	13.32
Cleveland Indians	78.26%	21.74%	100%	16.11
Detroit Tigers	0%	0%	0%	6.18
Kansas City Royals	0%	0%	0%	1.36
Minnesota Twins	20.25%	79.75%	100%	15.54

AL East

Team	Division%	Wild Card%	Total Playoff%	Average Wins
Baltimore Orioles	0%	0%	0%	7.25
Boston Red Sox	0%	0%	0%	5.31
New York Yankees	0.34%	1.6%	1.94%	9.95
Tampa Bay Rays	99.67%	0.12%	99.79%	14.18
Toronto Blue Jays	0%	0%	0%	7.36

[Rockies GM (Dan)]

Wild Card Race

Q: What is up with Seattle? They clearly have the third best outlook in the AL, but they've got lower odds than some behind them.

A: Seattle has lost to Minnesota, New York, and Oakland, they also rank 24th  out of 30th in Wins, which would break the tie if they win again against Oakland to tie the head-to-head matchup. What that means is that Seattle probably has to end the season with the third wild card spot uncontested in order to secure it. That's possible, but not as likely as you'd think if you just looked at the graph.

Q: In the NL Chart, where are the Cubs?

A: Look under the apex of the Mets' curve. They're there. Somehow, mere fractions of a percentage point separate the Mets and the Cubs at every single win. I haven't really seen two curves so similar since I began posting these.

Q: Speaking of the Mets?

A: The Mets have lost to both the Pirates and Mets, although they have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. That's why, while their curve puts them right up there with the Cubs and Diamondbacks, they are a distant fifth in terms of odds. In fact, the Cubs, Diamondbacks and Pirates have a whole mess of tiebreakers between them, which is why the Pirates are behind the other two, despite looking like they should have a leg up.

Q: Okay, but why are the Pirates and Cubs here and not the Brewers, who have the third best odds at the NL Central?

A: This is as the league stands today, and the Brewers beat the Pirates, which means if the season ended today, they're your NL Central champs. The simulation clearly expects that to change as the NL Central beats up on each other these final four weeks, but it hasn't happened yet. Same logic applies to the NL East, where the Mets are slight favorites over the Phillies to prevail with the title, but would lose the tiebreaker today.

Q: When you say the Twins have a 100% chance at a wild card, are you saying that they're not going to win the division?

A: No, voice inside my head. Why are you asking all these questions? This looks at each team's odds of winning the wildcard if they don't win the division. So, the 100% in the Twins case simply means that if they don't win the division, they WILL win a wild card. Look at the previous post. They clearly have a shot at winning the AL Central 


NL

Team	WC Odds
Colorado Rockies	99.98%
Chicago Cubs	76.49%
Arizona Diamondbacks	73.82%
Pittsburgh Pirates	73.3%
New York Mets	25.26%
Cincinnati Reds	12.39%
Atlanta Braves	0.49%

AL

Team	WC Odds
Minnesota Twins	100%
Chicago White Sox	97.5%
Oakland Athletics	77.66%
Seattle Mariners	18.27%
Houston Astros	4.81%
New York Yankees	1.62%