2020 Preseason: NL West Analysis
Mar 6, 2020 21:13:42 GMT -8
Padres GM (Amy), Rays GM (Donavan), and 7 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 6, 2020 21:13:42 GMT -8
Note: FA for this week hasn't yet been announced. But there aren't many FAs there that will swing these rankings. If any NL West team does sign several RPs who do, I'll post a quick update. But I wanted to get this project underway
Another note: Strengths and weaknesses are not in comparison with the team, they're in comparison with the league. San Diego's greatest strength as a team might not be their catching, but their catching compares most favorably with the rest of the league compared to any other position.
Best Corner Infielders: Colorado
Best Middle Infielders: Arizona
Best Outfielders: Colorado
Best Starting Staff: Los Angeles
Best Relievers: San Diego
Arizona Diamondbacks
Another note: Strengths and weaknesses are not in comparison with the team, they're in comparison with the league. San Diego's greatest strength as a team might not be their catching, but their catching compares most favorably with the rest of the league compared to any other position.
NL West
Best Catchers: San DiegoBest Corner Infielders: Colorado
Best Middle Infielders: Arizona
Best Outfielders: Colorado
Best Starting Staff: Los Angeles
Best Relievers: San Diego
Arizona Diamondbacks
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: OF
MVP: Alex Bregman
Breakout Candidate: Alec Bohm
NL West Rank: 5
NL Rank: 10
PB Rank: 13
Division Odds: 0.22%
The Diamondbacks defied preseason expectations last year, there’s a chance they’ll do it again. Their collection of infielders is among the best in the league, featuring Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, and Bohm. Unfortunately, the offense is let down by a bare-bones outfield. If Garrett Hampson breaks out in Colorado, perhaps that fixes some woes, but the only projected full-time player currently in the Arizona outfield is Dexter Fowler.
The pitching staff is middling, apart from Strasburg and Soroka. The algorithm sees them struggling in the counting stats – wins, holds, saves – while being among the best in rate stats – ERA and WHIP. Being that the rate stats see the biggest fluctuations, that is not the most solid of foundations.
Tl;dr – Certainly not a bad team, but in the NL West, it looks like it will be a dogfight for Arizona to return to the postseason this year.
Colorado Rockies
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Mike Trout
Breakout Candidate: Ian Happ
NL West Rank: 1
NL Rank: 2
PB Rank: 2
Division Odds: 56.06%
Once again, the Rockies enter the season as one of the projected favorites in the league. At least average at every position, besides catcher, the Rockies may not be as dominant as they were a few seasons ago, but with the real-life 2019 AL and NL MVPs (Mike Trout and Cody Bellinger, respectively), the offense should be among the best in the league.
Their pitching, while featuring young, up-and-coming pitchers like Paddack, Woodruff, and Urias, lacks depth. They improved their setup guys from 2019, and holds should come from the likes of Baez, Kahnle and Suero. On the other hand, they lost stud closer Robeto Osuna to RFA, and while they have Bradley and Rogers, the closers are not as solid as they have been in recent years.
Tl;dr – Another year of high expectations for the Rockies, but they aren’t without their warts.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest Strength: SP
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Chris Sale
Breakout Candidate: Nick Senzel
NL West Rank: 4
NL Rank: 9
PB Rank: 12
Division Odds: 0.04%
I think it’s safe to say no one team has gone through more changes in the course of the offseason than the Dodgers. Through wheeling and dealing, the brand new Dodgers have given themselves a shot. It just may not be enough. Depth is an issue with this team, with only two players each at CI and MI expected for over 100 at-bats (although Ke’Bryan Hayes is likely to exceed his projected AB). There are some younger players on offense that may have some breakout appeal in them – like Senzel, Hayes, Hoskins, Newman. But a lot needs to go right on the offensive side.
The starting pitching, on the other hand, is formidable. deGrom, Montas, Sale, and Wheeler give the Dodgers a top-3 staff, with a potential stud in Mize waiting in the wings. The Dodgers won’t get much help from their relievers. Givens is the only reliever they can expect to begin the season with a big-league spot. Most weeks, they’ll be punting two categories, needing to win nearly every other category to win.
Tl;dr – Winning while punting two categories is a hard thing to do, no matter how good the rest of your team is.
San Diego Padres
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: CI
MVP: Ronald Acuna Jr.
Breakout Candidate: Jake Bauers
NL West Rank: 2
NL Rank: 4
PB Rank: 5
Division Odds: 42.43%
Amy is back with a vengeance. After a few years out of the playoffs, the Padres are once again league contenders with one of the most well-rounded rosters in the league. The offense has stars and a great deal of depth. Grabbing Jonathan Schoop might have been one of the best moves of the offseason, setting up the MI very nicely. The outfielders, headed by Acuna and Mancini are rock solid. If Bauers breaks out, even the Padres’ biggest weakness won’t look so bad. The depth of this offense is wisely set up – the Padres rank highly in each counting stat, stats which don’t historically fluctuate as wildly as the rate stats. On the other hand, the weakness of the Padres offense lies in the rate stats – Average and OPS.
Similarly, the pitching is heavy in counting stats while faltering a bit in the rate stats. There aren’t any current stars in their staff, but the sheer number of starters the Padres can throw out should win wins and strikeouts most weeks. The bullpen should rack up a good number of saves, but the Padres could improve by picking up some guys to accumulate more holds.
Tl;dr – Building an extremely deep team around a cheap, young, elite talent like Ronald Acuna was a great strategy, and should catapult the Padres back into contention
San Francisco Giants
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: MI
MVP: Freddie Freeman
Breakout Candidate: Sean Manaea
NL West Rank: 2
NL Rank: 7
PB Rank: 9
Division Odds: 1.25%
The Giants were among the best teams in the league the past few years. But they have fallen down a peg or two, and now rank smack dab in the middle of the NL. The offense, while laden with stars like Freeman, Sanchez, Bryant, and Bell, lacks depth beyond the OF position. Their MIs, once the strength of the team, is now their biggest weakness, and the days of Dee Gordon single-handedly winning the Giants the SB category week in and week out seem to be over. The starters on their offense are still formidable, but this offense isn’t quite what it was a couple seasons ago.
The Giants long ago embraced the quantity over quality approach to pitching, and that strategy has worked for them. With the trade of Patrick Corbin recently, the Giants lost their best pitcher in order to shore up their OF depth. While they will rack up strikeouts and wins again, the algorithm doesn’t see them doing so to the same extent as they have in the past. With only one closer, and a bullpen that mostly isn’t in position to rack up holds at the start of the year, the bullpen doesn’t add many counting stats.
Tl;dr – While they’d be the 3rd best team in the AL, they’re in the NL West, and are only the 7th best team in the NL.
Overview
All five NL West teams rank among the best 13 teams in the league. While the Padres and Rockies are the favorites at the moment, injuries could reshape this race fast. The Dodgers may rank just ahead of the Diamondbacks in the power rankings, but punting the two bullpen categories has them generally ranking lower in average wins. With the depth of the Padres, I wouldn’t be surprised if they overtake my Rockies and win the NL West
