2020 Preseason: NL Central Analysis
Mar 7, 2020 22:42:00 GMT -8
Rays GM (Donavan), Former Angels GM (Mike C.), and 8 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 7, 2020 22:42:00 GMT -8
NL Central
Best Catchers: MilwaukeeBest Corner Infielders: Cincinnati
Best Middle Infielders: Chicago
Best Outfielders: Pittsburgh
Best Starting Staff: Cincinnati
Best Relievers: Chicago
Chicago Cubs
Biggest Strength: RP
Biggest Weakness: SP
MVP: Adalberto Mondesi
Breakout Candidate: Nick Burdi
NL Central Rank: 2
NL Rank: 9
PB Rank: 12
Division Odds: 47.37%
The Cubs are built around speed, with Mondesi, Albies, and Kiermaier all projected for double digits (and Mondesi with 51). There are no true power threats on their bench, but they have enough people projected in the double-digits that they end up about average in HRs, as they are in Runs and RBIs as well. They don’t have the star power to kill you, but their depth will eat away.
The Chicago pitching staff isn’t exactly a powerhouse either, with Jon Gray the ace of their staff. But they should rack up enough wins to stay competitive. The true strength of their pitching comes in their bullpen, where Aroldis Chapman (who I was tempted to put as their MVP) leads the charge. With two closers and a bevy of setup men, the Cubs should win saves and holds most weeks.
The true weakness both in offense and pitching for the Cubs is in their rate stats (AVG, OPS, ERA, WHIP), all of which as a category, fluctuate more than the counting stats. If they were a D&D character, they’d be min-maxed to the extreme as a result.
Tl;dr – Being great in a few stats, and being average in most other stats will win you more games than you lose.
Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Strength: SP
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Mike Clevinger
Breakout Candidate: Joshua James
NL Central Rank: 3
NL Rank: 11
PB Rank: 14
Division Odds: 5.47%
Last year’s surprise NL Champions, the Reds are going to have to beat expectations again to repeat. Largely lacking star power on offense, they are led by second-tier players like Jeff McNeil, Jesse Winker, and Nicholas Castellanos – solid enough players on their own, but better second-fiddles than stars. But depth is a strength, and they should hit enough to keep their offense in the game most weeks.
If they can win a couple of offensive categories, the Reds should win most of their matchups, with one of the best collections of starting pitchers in the league. Boasting a mix of proven stars like Clevinger and Sonny Gray, aging veterans who are still possible of good years like Cueto and Price, and breakout possibilities like Joshua James, the Reds should win Wins and Strikeouts most weeks, with a good shot at ERA and WHIP. Without a closer to start the year, and only a few proven setup men, the bullpen might be a weakness.
Tl;dr – If they can just hang in there on offense, this Reds team will destroy you with their arsenal of arms. Can their bullpen keep up?
If they can win a couple of offensive categories, the Reds should win most of their matchups, with one of the best collections of starting pitchers in the league. Boasting a mix of proven stars like Clevinger and Sonny Gray, aging veterans who are still possible of good years like Cueto and Price, and breakout possibilities like Joshua James, the Reds should win Wins and Strikeouts most weeks, with a good shot at ERA and WHIP. Without a closer to start the year, and only a few proven setup men, the bullpen might be a weakness.
Tl;dr – If they can just hang in there on offense, this Reds team will destroy you with their arsenal of arms. Can their bullpen keep up?
Milwaukee Brewers
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: MI
MVP: Aaron Judge
Breakout Candidate: Kevin Cron
NL Central Rank: 4
NL Rank: 14
PB Rank: 23
Division Odds: 0.03%
The Brewers have beaten these projections before. But this year, the offense is not what it was. Entering the year, their best CI is Ji-Man Choi, and their best MI, Asdrubal Cabrera, isn’t even projected to get 300 at-bats. The good news is they have a lot of depth, and several multi-position players, so if they’re able to scheme their lineups well, there’s a possibility they might get more out of this offense than the sum of its parts. At least outfield is set, with Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber.
Milwaukee is another team embracing the mentality of quantity over quality in its pitching. This should win them Wins and Strikeouts many weeks, but their rotation isn’t going to win many ERA or WHIP categories. If Keuchel can regain ace form, it would help. Similarly, the bullpen doesn’t have much star power, but they’ve got a shot at holds most weeks.
Milwaukee is another team embracing the mentality of quantity over quality in its pitching. This should win them Wins and Strikeouts many weeks, but their rotation isn’t going to win many ERA or WHIP categories. If Keuchel can regain ace form, it would help. Similarly, the bullpen doesn’t have much star power, but they’ve got a shot at holds most weeks.
Tl;dr – Projected to be the second-worst team in the NL, there are some parts here, but they’re scattered throughout a deep roster.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Nolan Arenado
Breakout Candidate: Dylan Carlson
NL Central Rank: 1
NL Rank: 6
PB Rank: 8
Division Odds: 47.14%
This offense is deep and powerful, with enough speed to chip in a win in SB every now and then. Arenado, Moustakas, Ozuna, and Soler all project for at least 30 HRs. Behind them, another nine project for double-digits. Moustakas being MI-eligible helps give them options and different looks in their lineup. The biggest question for this team is how they’ll deploy Jarrod Dyson – who will drag down their power numbers, but projects for over 20 steals.
The Pittsburgh rotation is middling, led by forever-Pirate Charlie Morton. Newcomb, Maeda and Houser all should be decent options, but all have risks. They’ve got some saves coming from Kirby Yates, and enough holds to be competitive.
The Pittsburgh rotation is middling, led by forever-Pirate Charlie Morton. Newcomb, Maeda and Houser all should be decent options, but all have risks. They’ve got some saves coming from Kirby Yates, and enough holds to be competitive.
Tl;dr – A stud-laden offense and a mediocre pitching staff. They rank higher than the Cubs, and yet, are slight underdogs according to the simulation.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: Everywhere Else (but MI especially)
MVP: Michael Conforto
Breakout Candidate: Jorge Mateo
NL Central Rank: 5
NL Rank: 15
PB Rank: 29
Division Odds: 0%
Our first team virtually assured to be sitting home in September, the Cardinals continue a lengthy rebuild. They have some nice pieces accumulating, like Will Smith, and Michael Conforto (to whom they are paying a king’s ransom). Most weeks they are going to flirt with the 100 AB threshold, but even when they do, they don’t have the firepower yet to really threaten anyone.
Where they might meet the AB threshold, they do not project to meet the IP one yet. With only three starters projected for any stats (and none over 20 projected starts), and a bullpen that will pick up a few holds, but little else, they’re destined to pick high in the draft again next year.
Where they might meet the AB threshold, they do not project to meet the IP one yet. With only three starters projected for any stats (and none over 20 projected starts), and a bullpen that will pick up a few holds, but little else, they’re destined to pick high in the draft again next year.
Tl;dr – Gunning for that #1 overall pick. Three wins would be a surprise from this team.
Overview
The NL Central is the weakest division in the NL, but as such, has room for almost everyone. Milwaukee has beaten projections before, and Pittsburgh annually somehow falters. Cincinnati came out of nowhere last year, and they’d have to do it again. But this looks like a 2-team race. While Pittsburgh wins about .15 average wins more than Chicago, head-to-head, the simulation likes the Cubs.