2020 Preseason: NL East Analysis
Mar 8, 2020 9:34:30 GMT -8
Rays GM (Donavan), Former Angels GM (Mike C.), and 6 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 8, 2020 9:34:30 GMT -8
NL East
Best Catchers: WashingtonBest Corner Infielders: Atlanta
Best Middle Infielders: Atlanta
Best Outfielders: New York
Best Starting Staff: New York
Best Relievers: Atlanta
Atlanta Braves
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: OF
MVP: Manny Machado
Breakout Candidate: Corbin Burnes
NL East Rank: 1
NL Rank: 1
PB Rank: 1
Division Odds: 76.42%
Ladies and gentlemen, the best team in the league in 2020, I present to you, the Atlanta Braves. Remarkably well rounded, this Braves offense features a mix of established stars like Manny Machado and Eugenio Suarez, with young hotshots like Eloy Jimenez and Bo Bichette. They may not be the deepest team in the league in terms of sheer quantity, but they go at least four deep in CI and MI, where any of those four could be regular starters on the majority of teams in the league. Outfield is their biggest weakness, with Jimenez and Franmil Reyes as viable starters, but lacking depth comparative to their other positions. As a team, perhaps the biggest weakness is the lack of speed, as the Braves only project to be average in SBs. A minor quibble, at most.
When Adam Wainwright might be your worst full-time starter, you know you’ve got a great pitching staff. Such is the case here, led by Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman. Health might be an issue with this staff, but that is not something projections are taking into account. But the starters are good, and they’re deep. This is a team that can beat you in both counting and rate stats. In their bullpen, they’ve got Raisel Iglesias racking up saves, while they picked up a number of high-upside setup men to secure holds.
When Adam Wainwright might be your worst full-time starter, you know you’ve got a great pitching staff. Such is the case here, led by Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman. Health might be an issue with this staff, but that is not something projections are taking into account. But the starters are good, and they’re deep. This is a team that can beat you in both counting and rate stats. In their bullpen, they’ve got Raisel Iglesias racking up saves, while they picked up a number of high-upside setup men to secure holds.
Tl;dr – The Braves are the complete package, and 2020 should be a coming out year for this rising team.
Miami Marlins
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: OF
MVP: Marcus Semien
Breakout Candidate: Brendan McKay
NL East Rank: 4
NL Rank: 12
PB Rank: 21
Division Odds: 0.01%
The Marlins are not expected to seriously challenge for much this year, but make no mistake, this team is seriously improved from past years. The strength of the offense is in their MI, led by studs Xander Bogaerts and Marcus Semien. If Miguel Andujar can return to 2018 form after his lost 2019, he’ll boos their CI, and time will tell if Luke Voit can keep up the production. The weakness on offense is an outfield that boasts Corey Dickerson and no other full-time starter. DeShields might pick up some steals, but Alford isn’t expected to contribute very much. The strength of the offense is in the rate stats, but the Marlins might not make enough noise in the counting stats for it to make a difference.
On the pitching side, Cease, McKay and MacKenzie Gore project to be a better 2021 pitching staff than 2020, but they should be serviceable this year. Depth charts projects middling years from Roark, Tanaka and Eovaldi, while expecting surprisingly effective stats from Kwang-hyun Kim. In the bullpen, they have Kimbrel, who will hope to bounce back from a down 2019, and a few guys expected to pick up holds. But again, this is more of a middle-pack pitching staff than anything else.
Tl;dr – Contention doesn’t happen overnight, but these Marlins seem to be headed for good things. Just maybe not this year.
On the pitching side, Cease, McKay and MacKenzie Gore project to be a better 2021 pitching staff than 2020, but they should be serviceable this year. Depth charts projects middling years from Roark, Tanaka and Eovaldi, while expecting surprisingly effective stats from Kwang-hyun Kim. In the bullpen, they have Kimbrel, who will hope to bounce back from a down 2019, and a few guys expected to pick up holds. But again, this is more of a middle-pack pitching staff than anything else.
Tl;dr – Contention doesn’t happen overnight, but these Marlins seem to be headed for good things. Just maybe not this year.
New York Mets
Biggest Strength: SP
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Christian Yelich/Gerrit Cole
Breakout Candidate: Clint Frazier
NL East Rank: 2
NL Rank: 4
PB Rank: 5
Division Odds: 17.93%
New York has a collection of stars to rival the Atlanta Braves for dominance in the NL East. On offense, they are led by Yelich, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Trea Turner. Compared to the Braves, the Mets project for less power, but a lot more speed. Unlike the Braves, though, the Mets aren’t nearly as deep. Unless Bobby Bradley or Yonder Alonso find themselves thrust into starting positions, their CIs consist of Brian Anderson, Scott Kingery, and Jesus Aguilar, a collection that doesn’t exactly strike fear into opponents. The depth is helped by multi-eligible players like Brian Anderson and Scott Kingery, but if one of them needs to be a full-time CI, that depth is negated.
Their pitching, on the other hand, is much deeper. This is a team that should win Wins and Strikeouts on a weekly basis. Gerrit Cole and Walker Buehler might be the best 1-2 combination in the league. Dustin May and Yonny Chirinos are decent secondary options, and the rest of their starters don’t contribute much in the way of rate stats, but should help in those all-important counting stats. Starting the year, the Mets do not project to have a closer, so unless a move is made, saves will be punted. But they should find enough holds to be competitive.
Their pitching, on the other hand, is much deeper. This is a team that should win Wins and Strikeouts on a weekly basis. Gerrit Cole and Walker Buehler might be the best 1-2 combination in the league. Dustin May and Yonny Chirinos are decent secondary options, and the rest of their starters don’t contribute much in the way of rate stats, but should help in those all-important counting stats. Starting the year, the Mets do not project to have a closer, so unless a move is made, saves will be punted. But they should find enough holds to be competitive.
Tl;dr – This is a team likely to find themselves in the playoffs. But they might not be deep enough to challenge the Braves for the NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: SP
MVP: Miguel Sano
Breakout Candidate: Victor Robles
NL East Rank: 5
NL Rank: 13
PB Rank: 22
Division Odds: 0.23%
The offense is generally average, with speed being their one true calling card. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Robles and Lorenzo Cain bolster an outfield which should both hit for power and steal a fair share of bases. Sano, Rougned Odor and Tim Anderson should each chip in 20+ HRs themselves. But a deep team this is not. If healthy, they should be able to contend most weeks.
Pitching is where this team falters. Only one pitcher on their staff – Jose Quintana – is projected for over 30 starts. Their only other pitcher over 20 projected starts? Brett Anderson, whose injury history is legend. Prospects like Kolby Allard and Keegan Akin may chip in more starts than projected, but that is far from a sure thing. And apart from Quintana and Urena, projections don’t see any of these pitchers as above-average options. The Phillies picked up Workman for saves, and have numerous options for holds, but the rotation might doom this pitching staff.
Pitching is where this team falters. Only one pitcher on their staff – Jose Quintana – is projected for over 30 starts. Their only other pitcher over 20 projected starts? Brett Anderson, whose injury history is legend. Prospects like Kolby Allard and Keegan Akin may chip in more starts than projected, but that is far from a sure thing. And apart from Quintana and Urena, projections don’t see any of these pitchers as above-average options. The Phillies picked up Workman for saves, and have numerous options for holds, but the rotation might doom this pitching staff.
Tl;dr – A mediocre team in a vastly improved division, the Phillies may not be returning to the playoffs this year.
Washington Nationals
Biggest Strength: SP
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Mookie Betts
Breakout Candidate: Nick Madrigal
NL East Rank: 3
NL Rank: 5
PB Rank: 6
Division Odds: 5.4%
Washington doesn’t rebuild, they retool. A year after incredibly bad luck forced them to be sellers rather than contenders, the Nationals are back in contention. An offense that had been built around power now finds itself speed-centric, with Luis Robert, Mookie Betts, Jose Ramirez and Nick Madrigal all projecting for 18+ SBs. They are more average in the power categories, but, overall, they’re good enough at most offensive categories to challenge weekly.
This team’s strength, however, is in its starting rotation. I almost named Blake Snell their MVP, as he leads a talented staff featuring Trevor Bauer, Garrett Richards, and Alex Wood. Their secondary options also possess a lot of upside in Hill, Kopech, Fulmer and Sheffield. In Colome, Harvey and Kintzler, the Nationals should not lack for options to close games out, but Depth Charts does not project many holds. With Cody Allen and Emmanuel Clase, though, I think projections might be underrating the setup potential.
This team’s strength, however, is in its starting rotation. I almost named Blake Snell their MVP, as he leads a talented staff featuring Trevor Bauer, Garrett Richards, and Alex Wood. Their secondary options also possess a lot of upside in Hill, Kopech, Fulmer and Sheffield. In Colome, Harvey and Kintzler, the Nationals should not lack for options to close games out, but Depth Charts does not project many holds. With Cody Allen and Emmanuel Clase, though, I think projections might be underrating the setup potential.
Tl;dr – Back in contention, but despite being 6th overall, being 3rd in their division makes it a dogfight for a potential wild card berth
Overview
The NL East rivals the NL West for the title of strongest division in the league. They are just as top heavy, but not as tightly packed in the end. The Braves are heavy favorites, but the Mets and Nationals are true contenders. This should also be a fun division to watch.