2020 Preseason: AL West Analysis
Mar 8, 2020 12:17:36 GMT -8
Rays GM (Donavan), Former Angels GM (Mike C.), and 5 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 8, 2020 12:17:36 GMT -8
AL West
Best Catchers: TexasBest Corner Infielders: Los Angeles
Best Middle Infielders: Los Angeles
Best Outfielders: Seattle
Best Starting Staff: Los Angeles
Best Relievers: Houston
Houston Astros
Biggest Strength: RP
Biggest Weakness: Psst...someone tell Kevin that CI is a position
MVP: Gleyber Torres
Breakout Candidate: Jose Urquidy
AL West Rank: 4
AL Rank: 11
PB Rank: 25
Division Odds: 0%
Unless Kevin has an ace up his sleeve, it looks like this is a tanking year for the Astros. There just isn’t an offense here. The only catcher who has any stats projected on the season is Deivy Grullon, who projects for a whole 12 ABs. And that’s still better than their CI position, where they currently sit with…checks notes…no one. They only have one projected starting MI, and he’s a good one in Gleyber Torres. They can, at least fill out the OF position between Alex Dickerson and Mike Yastrzemski.
At least Houston has pitching. Their rotation is generally average, led by Miles Mikolas. But the bullpen is where the riches lie on this team. Playing keepaway in FA, the Astros have accumulated five players projected for double-digit saves, and eight for double-digit holds. Seeing as relief pitching is always in hot demand during trade season, the Astros might restock their entire cupboard come August through an RP firesale.
At least Houston has pitching. Their rotation is generally average, led by Miles Mikolas. But the bullpen is where the riches lie on this team. Playing keepaway in FA, the Astros have accumulated five players projected for double-digit saves, and eight for double-digit holds. Seeing as relief pitching is always in hot demand during trade season, the Astros might restock their entire cupboard come August through an RP firesale.
Tl;dr – Unless they make a number of moves to shore up a nonexistent offense, Houston is in line for a top 2021 pick to add to whatever they get at the trade deadline.
Los Angeles Angels
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Peter Alonso
Breakout Candidate: Nick Solak
AL West Rank: 1
AL Rank: 1
PB Rank: 3
Division Odds: 85.75%
Last year’s Champions, the simulation has them returning to the championship this year about a third of the time and has them the odds-on favorite at repeating. The gap between the Angels and the rest of the AL is a chasm compared to the gap between the top NL teams and the rest of the NL. Behind Nelson Cruz, Alonso, Charlie Blackmon, and Max Muncy, this should be a beast of an offense. Capable of winning five of the six offensive categories week in and week out. Speed is the only area where the Angels are lacking, coming in just a bit under league average. Sacrificing some power at MI to play Elvis Andrus should help, but only so much.
Their pitching is just as good as their hitting, possibly even better. While their top pitching is aging, Greinke, Verlander and Weaver don’t look like they’re close to falling off the cliff just yet. And behind them, Ryan Yarbrough and Eric Lauer provide a look into the Angels’ future at the position. Their bullpen, while not the deepest, features seven pitchers who all bring strong counting stats to the table. Nick Anderson and Edwin Diaz should keep the Angels competitive in saves, while Ottavino, Pagan and company hold down the fort on holds.
Tl;dr – The best team by far in a weak conference, the Angels are in a great position to repeat as champions.
Their pitching is just as good as their hitting, possibly even better. While their top pitching is aging, Greinke, Verlander and Weaver don’t look like they’re close to falling off the cliff just yet. And behind them, Ryan Yarbrough and Eric Lauer provide a look into the Angels’ future at the position. Their bullpen, while not the deepest, features seven pitchers who all bring strong counting stats to the table. Nick Anderson and Edwin Diaz should keep the Angels competitive in saves, while Ottavino, Pagan and company hold down the fort on holds.
Tl;dr – The best team by far in a weak conference, the Angels are in a great position to repeat as champions.
Oakland Athletics
Biggest Strength: RP
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Yordan Alvarez
Breakout Candidate: Jon Berti
AL West Rank: 3
AL Rank: 10
PB Rank: 24
Division Odds: 0.48%
Oakland has a nice collection of OF, but no catchers, and a middling MI and CI. There are some assumptions they’ll need to meet, or else they’ll be in trouble – first, J.D. Davis has to find starting playing time, which isn’t a given, and Yasiel Puig needs to sign somewhere. Take away those two, and a mediocre offense drops a decent margin. They’ll hit their fair share of homerun, but steals will be hard to come by, mostly depending on how much playing time Berti gets.
The pitching isn’t particularly deep, but has some good pieces like Lance McCullers Jr. If Randy Dobnak pitches himself into the 5th starter position in Minnesota, that will help, but it isn’t a given. The strength of the pitching staff is the bullpen, especially in the holds category, where Joe Kelly and Oliver Perez should help Oakland to a win in that category more often than not.
The pitching isn’t particularly deep, but has some good pieces like Lance McCullers Jr. If Randy Dobnak pitches himself into the 5th starter position in Minnesota, that will help, but it isn’t a given. The strength of the pitching staff is the bullpen, especially in the holds category, where Joe Kelly and Oliver Perez should help Oakland to a win in that category more often than not.
Tl;dr – Lacking a lot of depth, Oakland still has a shot because of the league they play in.
Seattle Mariners
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: Pitching...all of it
MVP: Juan Soto
Breakout Candidate: Alex Verdugo
AL West Rank: 2
AL Rank: 4
PB Rank: 15
Division Odds: 13.77%
Seattle is probably the only team with a realistic chance of dethroning the Angels. Seattle’s strength is in their offense, where years of rebuilding and prospecting have resulted in a team led by Soto, Yoan Moncada, Matt Olson, and Mallex Smith. As such, they rank among the best teams in R, HR, RBI, and SB. The rate stats lag behind a bit, but, as discussed in other breakdowns, that’s not all worrisome.
What is potentially Seattle’s downfall is a weak pitching staff. While certainly improved, the quality is not up to par with their offense. Max Fried is the ace of their staff, but projections don’t see Mike Minor living up to his past year. Seattle only has three pitchers projected for over 20 starts this year, and might struggle at times to meet the IP threshold again, which may negate their potent offense. Their bullpen should help out and win them holds categories a majority of the time, but they desperately need a closer if they are in danger of missing out on the IP threshold.
What is potentially Seattle’s downfall is a weak pitching staff. While certainly improved, the quality is not up to par with their offense. Max Fried is the ace of their staff, but projections don’t see Mike Minor living up to his past year. Seattle only has three pitchers projected for over 20 starts this year, and might struggle at times to meet the IP threshold again, which may negate their potent offense. Their bullpen should help out and win them holds categories a majority of the time, but they desperately need a closer if they are in danger of missing out on the IP threshold.
Tl;dr – One of the best offenses in the league, Seattle’s pitching might let them down again. If they can just reach 30IP/week, Seattle has a great chance at finally making the playoffs.
Texas Rangers
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Robbie Ray
Breakout Candidate: Bryse Wilson
AL West Rank: 5
AL Rank: 13
PB Rank: 27
Division Odds: 0%
The Rangers have a 0.14% chance at making the playoffs, according to simulations, so…progress! The Rangers are below league average in every category, but are strongest in SB, where Oscar Mercado and Cavan Biggio will help Texas to some wins. Not particularly deep, the Rangers will struggle at times to meet the AB threshold, until prospects come up.
The pitching, led by Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Archer is better than in previous years, but also lacks depth. The bullpen is much deeper, but doesn’t project to accumulate a great deal of holds or saves. They do, however, stand a good chance at meeting IP thresholds.
The pitching, led by Ray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Archer is better than in previous years, but also lacks depth. The bullpen is much deeper, but doesn’t project to accumulate a great deal of holds or saves. They do, however, stand a good chance at meeting IP thresholds.
Tl;dr – Still rebuilding, and incrementally getting better, the Rangers continue chugging along.
Overview
One of the weakest divisions in the league also has the best team in the AL, and the Angels should run away with the pennant and be division champions by midseason or so. The Mariners have a good shot at a wild card if they can shore up the pitching.