2020 Preseason: AL Central Analysis
Mar 8, 2020 15:45:55 GMT -8
Rays GM (Donavan), White Sox GM (Aidan), and 6 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 8, 2020 15:45:55 GMT -8
AL Central
Best Catchers: ClevelandBest Corner Infielders: Minnesota
Best Middle Infielders: Chicago
Best Outfielders: Chicago
Best Starting Staff: Cleveland
Best Relievers: Minnesota
Chicago White Sox
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Trevor Story
Breakout Candidate: German Marquez
AL Central Rank: 2
AL Rank: 6
PB Rank: 17
Division Odds: 18.05%
This is going to be a theme through the AL Central, but Chicago is a perfectly adequate all-around team. They are elite in both AVG and OPS, which will win them those categories more weeks than not, but those are notoriously inconsistent categories. Otherwise, the offense is about average in every other category. Mostly, that is due to a lack of depth. Donaldson, Turner, Story, Marte, and Martinez are all at least borderline stars. But there isn’t much behind them. Ironically, the position they have the most depth at is catcher, possibly the least important position.
Darvish, Glasnow and Marquez are solid starters for this team, but pitching also lacks depth, at least t the beginning of the season. If King Felix can turn back the clock a bit, that will help a lot. Hoffman, Norris and Zimmermann will drag WHIP and ERA down a fair amount. There aren’t any closers to talk about in the bullpen, but there are a few options for holds.
Darvish, Glasnow and Marquez are solid starters for this team, but pitching also lacks depth, at least t the beginning of the season. If King Felix can turn back the clock a bit, that will help a lot. Hoffman, Norris and Zimmermann will drag WHIP and ERA down a fair amount. There aren’t any closers to talk about in the bullpen, but there are a few options for holds.
Tl;dr – In the tightly-contested AL Central, the White Sox are squarely in the middle of the competition. Their biggest strengths are inconsistent, but this is a good AL team.
Cleveland Indians
Biggest Strength: SP
Biggest Weakness: CI
MVP: Max Scherzer
Breakout Candidate: Sixto Sanchez
AL Central Rank: 1
AL Rank: 3
PB Rank: 11
Division Odds: 31.97%
The Indians also boast a perfectly adequate offense, with a little more depth than the White Sox, but not as much star power. They have one of the best collections of talent at the catcher position in the league behind Contreras and Sean Murphy. But CI is an issue, with only Goldschmidt and David Bote at the position. Baez is the focal point of the offense at MI, which is also their deepest position.
The Indians are kind of the antithesis to the White Sox, in that their strength is in the pitching rate stats rather than the hitting ones. Scherzer, Nola, and Luis Castillo are among the best trios in the league, but the depth isn’t great in the rotation to start the year. Pivetta and Beede are at risk of losing the position, and Domingo German is projected for under 20 starts. Kenley Jansen is a great option at closer, but Andres Munoz, Victor Arano and Seranthony Dominguez will have to give them more holds than is projected to really solidify the bullpen.
Tl;dr – The favorite team in the AL Central, according to simulations, but not much separates the four teams at the top.
The Indians are kind of the antithesis to the White Sox, in that their strength is in the pitching rate stats rather than the hitting ones. Scherzer, Nola, and Luis Castillo are among the best trios in the league, but the depth isn’t great in the rotation to start the year. Pivetta and Beede are at risk of losing the position, and Domingo German is projected for under 20 starts. Kenley Jansen is a great option at closer, but Andres Munoz, Victor Arano and Seranthony Dominguez will have to give them more holds than is projected to really solidify the bullpen.
Tl;dr – The favorite team in the AL Central, according to simulations, but not much separates the four teams at the top.
Detroit Tigers
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Clayton Kershaw
Breakout Candidate: Carter Kieboom
AL Central Rank: 4
AL Rank: 9
PB Rank: 20
Division Odds: 27.55%
Detroit doesn’t boast a single stat that is expected to be above the 80% percentile, but has a much more well-rounded offense than anyone else in the division, which possibly explains why my power rankings suggest they’re the 4th best team in the division, but the simulation gives them the 2nd highest odds at winning the Central. There is a distinct lack of stars on offense, but the depth is extremely solid. Tommy Pham, Ramon Laureano, Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion are the standouts on offense, and Arraez and Wong are solid starting MI options – if Kieboom breaks out, it just adds to the depth at the position.
Kershaw and Syndergaard are genuine aces on this staff, with Lance Lynn a great third option. Alcantara also offers a good amount of upside. Wade Davis starts the year as the Rockies closer, time will tell if he regains prior years’ form or loses the job again. The Tigers have a few guys able to get some holds, but not enough to consistently rely on the category.
Kershaw and Syndergaard are genuine aces on this staff, with Lance Lynn a great third option. Alcantara also offers a good amount of upside. Wade Davis starts the year as the Rockies closer, time will tell if he regains prior years’ form or loses the job again. The Tigers have a few guys able to get some holds, but not enough to consistently rely on the category.
Tl;dr – Prioritizing depth over star power has the new-look Tigers in position to pull off a big upset in the AL Central.
Kansas City Royals
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: RP
MVP: Shane Bieber
Breakout Candidate: Gavin Lux
AL Central Rank: 5
AL Rank: 12
PB Rank: 26
Division Odds: 0.06%
Kansas City’s years of prospecting are starting to show signs of paying off. Evan White, Gavin Lux, Adam Hasely and Jo Adell should start to show whether or not the foundation the Royals have been building has solid feet. As for this year, the Royals don’t project to be competitive. There’s a lack of both proven talent and depth. This year probably can best be used for proof of concept of their offensive prospects.
Similarly, the pitching isn’t particularly talented or deep in major league talent. But AJ Puk, Daniel Ponce De Leon, Deivi Garcia and more should start to hit the majors. If they can hit the pitching threshold, the Royals will have a shot to win rate stats, but that’s about all.
Similarly, the pitching isn’t particularly talented or deep in major league talent. But AJ Puk, Daniel Ponce De Leon, Deivi Garcia and more should start to hit the majors. If they can hit the pitching threshold, the Royals will have a shot to win rate stats, but that’s about all.
Tl;dr – The rebuild continues. But as talent starts to hit the majors, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Minnesota Twins
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: OF
MVP: Vlad Guerrero Jr.
Breakout Candidate: Adbert Alzolay
AL Central Rank: 3
AL Rank: 8
PB Rank: 19
Division Odds: 22.37%
A perfectly adequate offense…wait, have I said this before? Pretty much everything here other than AVG hovers between the 40th and 60th percentiles in the league. Which, in the AL gives the Twins a chance every week. The starters at every position are solid, but not spectacular, but the depth behind isn’t starter-quality. If injuries happen, the Twins might be in a little trouble.
The pitching continues the middle-of the pack trend. The upside is limited with Gausman and an injury-prone Carlos Cartinez anchoring the pitching staff. If Foltynewicz and Samardzija have one of their good years, the staff will look great. If not? Well, at least the Twins win at Scrabble with those two. In Hansel Robles, the Twins have a closer, and they’ve got a couple potential sources of holds. But nothing is elite.
The pitching continues the middle-of the pack trend. The upside is limited with Gausman and an injury-prone Carlos Cartinez anchoring the pitching staff. If Foltynewicz and Samardzija have one of their good years, the staff will look great. If not? Well, at least the Twins win at Scrabble with those two. In Hansel Robles, the Twins have a closer, and they’ve got a couple potential sources of holds. But nothing is elite.
Tl;dr – Nothing stands out, but they can compete in any statistic.
Overview
This is going to be my favorite race to watch, as four of the five teams have a legitimate shot to win the division. Not much separates any of the teams in this division, and it really is anyone’s game.
