2020 Preseason: AL East Analysis
Mar 8, 2020 17:52:14 GMT -8
Rays GM (Donavan), Nationals GM (Preston), and 3 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Mar 8, 2020 17:52:14 GMT -8
AL East
Best Catchers: BaltimoreBest Corner Infielders: Tampa Bay
Best Middle Infielders: Tampa Bay
Best Outfielders: Toronto
Best Starting Staff: Tampa Bay
Best Relievers: Tampa Bay
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest Strength: Catcher
Biggest Weakness: MI
MVP: Austin Meadows
Breakout Candidate: Matthew Boyd
AL East Rank: 5
AL Rank: 15
PB Rank: 30
Division Odds: 0%
Unfortunately, Bill, in the name of completeness, I can’t just skip Baltimore. This is a rebuilding/tanking team, and so the offense is nothing to write home about. There are no starting MI to speak of, only Joey Votto on CI, and just two starting OF. They aren’t going to hit AB minimums most weeks, and won’t accumulate many counting stats either.
The three SP – Paxton, Keller and Boyd – are good, but they’re all the Orioles have. And there isn’t much in the way of a bullpen.
The three SP – Paxton, Keller and Boyd – are good, but they’re all the Orioles have. And there isn’t much in the way of a bullpen.
Tl;dr – This is the worst team in the league. But they’re rebuilding, and the new owner has a plan. They'll do better in the prospect rankings later this offseason
Boston Red Sox
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: AP
MVP: Anthony Rendon
Breakout Candidate: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
AL East Rank: 4
AL Rank: 14
PB Rank: 28
Division Odds: 0.02%
The Boston offense has a lot of depth, but not a lot of quality, necessarily. Only two of their players project for over 20 HR, and they lag behind in R, RBI and SB as well. Every stat is under the 50th percentile. It’s a middling offense.
Boston isn’t likely to hit IP minimums, with only two projected SPs – Brent Honeywell and Caleb Smith. They’ve got Barnes, Greene and Tim Hill for holds, but not much in the way of saves, either.
Tl;dr – Boston is still rebuilding. They should battle with Baltimore for a top pick in 2021.
Boston isn’t likely to hit IP minimums, with only two projected SPs – Brent Honeywell and Caleb Smith. They’ve got Barnes, Greene and Tim Hill for holds, but not much in the way of saves, either.
Tl;dr – Boston is still rebuilding. They should battle with Baltimore for a top pick in 2021.
New York Yankees
Biggest Strength: RP
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: Shohei Ohtani
Breakout Candidate: Kevin Ginkel
AL East Rank: 3
AL Rank: 7
PB Rank: 18
Division Odds: 21.56%
The Yankees have my favorite spider-graph – look at it, it’s like a silhouette of a weirdly big-nosed cartoon character's head. Anyway, New York boasts a mostly above-average offense. While they don’t have a lot of star power (Pederson may be their best bat, but he’s looking at the strong side of a platoon), they’ve got talented depth. They should pick up a good amount of runs and homeruns. While they’re below-average in SB, Kyle Tucker, Ohtani, and others should keep them competitive.
Apart from Ohtani returning to form on the mound after Tommy John surgery, there isn’t much star power to be found in the rotation (unless Bumgarner can turn back the tides of aging), but the depth is a strength, and should allow for wins in the W and K categories. They may not have a closer, but they should be elite in picking up holds.
Apart from Ohtani returning to form on the mound after Tommy John surgery, there isn’t much star power to be found in the rotation (unless Bumgarner can turn back the tides of aging), but the depth is a strength, and should allow for wins in the W and K categories. They may not have a closer, but they should be elite in picking up holds.
Tl;dr – The Yankees are still on an upwards trajectory. They’re the darkhorses of the AL East.
Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest Strength: RP
Biggest Weakness: Catcher
MVP: George Springer
Breakout Candidate: Rowdy Tellez
AL East Rank: 1
AL Rank: 2
PB Rank: 7
Division Odds: 71.72%
Tampa’s offense is more above-average than elite, but it’s well-rounded. George Springer and Anthony Rizzo lead an offense where at least five players are projected for over 20 HRs. They should rack up runs and RBIs as well, and Starling Marte, Tommy Edman, and Niko Goodrum should keep the Rays in contention with their speed.
Jack Flaherty and Kyle Hendricks headline the Rays’ rotation. It’s a good rotation, but not particularly deep. But that isn’t where the strength of their staff lies. The Rays have one of the top bullpens in the league. In Ken Giles, Joe Jimenez, and Roberto Osuna, the Rays have three solid closers, and should have several options for holds as well.
Jack Flaherty and Kyle Hendricks headline the Rays’ rotation. It’s a good rotation, but not particularly deep. But that isn’t where the strength of their staff lies. The Rays have one of the top bullpens in the league. In Ken Giles, Joe Jimenez, and Roberto Osuna, the Rays have three solid closers, and should have several options for holds as well.
Tl;dr – The favorites again in the AL East, this team will go as far as their bullpen can take them.
Toronto Blue Jays
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: CI
MVP: Bryce Harper
Breakout Candidate: Willie Calhoun
AL East Rank: 2
AL Rank: 5
PB Rank: 16
Division Odds: 6.7%
Toronto has a great collection of OF, bolstered by Harper, Benintendi, Calhoun, Choo and Brantley. It’s two more than they’ll be able to play nightly, and perhaps that depth could be better used at another position, like CI, where Depth Charts only projects Ryon Healy for 33 AB. After Healy, there are no other CI to talk about. MI is better, but only barely. Lindor is a great option, but Barreto and Solano are part-time players. Toronto should do really well in the rate stats, but not in the more-consistent counting ones. While z-Scores and roto rankings put Toronto 2nd in the division, this lack of offensive depth has them squarely behind the Yankees in the division race.
Toronto has a similar depth issue with their pitching, where they have a number of good rotation pieces, but not much depth. Berrios, Hamels, Kluber and Luzardo are a great start, but they could use some pieces to back them up. In the bullpen, Matt Magill is projected to pick up some saves, and Kyle Ryan and Chris Devenski could get them some holds.
Toronto has a similar depth issue with their pitching, where they have a number of good rotation pieces, but not much depth. Berrios, Hamels, Kluber and Luzardo are a great start, but they could use some pieces to back them up. In the bullpen, Matt Magill is projected to pick up some saves, and Kyle Ryan and Chris Devenski could get them some holds.
Tl;dr – Elite offensive rate stats mask depth issues. But they have an outside shot.
Overview
This division is still Tampa’s to lose. But New York and Toronto lurk.