Divisional Previews
Apr 6, 2023 16:09:44 GMT -8
Rangers GM (Victor), White Sox GM (Aidan), and 5 more like this
Post by Rockies GM (Dan) on Apr 6, 2023 16:09:44 GMT -8
Note: How to read Spider Graphs - dots in the center would be the worst ranks in the league, dots at the very outside would be the best. Halfway between is therefore average.
AL West
Houston Astros
Hitting
The Astros' hitting is headlined by a strong outfield. Lacking a true star in the outfield, they have six potential full time starters, and should be better than average at accumulating runs, HRs and RBIs. Pederson is probably their biggest source of power in the outfield, whereas Jose Siri will provide the stolen bases.
On the other side of the coin, the CI position has a couple big names in Jose Ramirez and Anthony Rizzo. They don't have the sheer number of starters to be elite in the counting stats apart from SB, but the star power shows through in the OPS category.
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: C
Pitching
Houston has a strong pitching staff, at least in sheer numbers. The starters lack a true star, and project to be merely average in the counting stats as a result. Urquidy, Kluber, Keller, and DeSclafani all project to at least 8 wins on the season, but none are strong strikeout pitchers.
The strength here is in a bullpen headlined by closers Camilo Doval and Daniel Bard. Pallante, Stephan and Brash all project for double digit holds. The rate stats don't stand out, but this is a team that will win saves and holds most weeks, and that will go a long way.
Overall
Los Angeles Angels
Hitting
Catching is a clear position of strength for the Angels, led by J.T. Realmuto, which helps the Angels project for the most steals out of the position.
CI might be even stronger, especially considering sheer numbers. Pete Alonso and Vinnie Pasquantino provide some star power and plenty of upside to the position, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt Mervis stand waiting to bust down the doors.
OF is a position of need, however, as Kyle Isbel is the only option Fangraphs' Depth Chart system projects to be a full-time starter.
Biggest Strength: CI
Biggest Weakness: OF
Pitching
Houston has a strong pitching staff, at least in sheer numbers. The starters lack a true star, and project to be merely average in the counting stats as a result. Urquidy, Kluber, Keller, and DeSclafani all project to at least 8 wins on the season, but none are strong strikeout pitchers.
The strength here is in a bullpen headlined by closers Camilo Doval and Daniel Bard. Pallante, Stephan and Brash all project for double digit holds. The rate stats don't stand out, but this is a team that will win saves and holds most weeks, and that will go a long way.
Overall
Oakland Athletics
Hitting
One of, if not the best collection of OF talent in the league belongs to the Oakland Athletics, who boast a strong core of Aaron Judge, Randy Arozarena, Adolis Garcia and Yordan Alvarez. Throw in young prospect Oscar Colas, and a couple backups, and you've got a monster unit, even if not everyone can play every night.
Every other position is somewhat average, at best. MI is the next strongest, off the backs of Tim Anderson and Jonathan Schoop. Curtis Mead of the Rays does give some hope for midseason help at CI, but the Rays are notoriously baffling about playing time for their youngsters.
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: C
Pitching
Kodai Senga is probably the best starter here - or Jon Gray, since we only have a very limited sample size from Senga. But projections do like the Japanese import. Apart from those two, the starting pitching isn't the strongest, and some command issues will likely drag down ERA and WHIP.
Projections systems may underrate their potential for holds, as that's one area where such systems notoriously struggle. But the lack of a true, strong closer hurts their case as well.
Overall
Seattle Mariners
Hitting
The murderer's row of AL West outfields continues with Seattle, helmed by superstar Juan Soto, and speedsters like Cedric Mullins and Esteury Ruiz. Throw in Alex Verdugo, and you've got one of the strongest units in the league.
CI lacks a true star, but has a strong number of players that can be mixed and matched to maximize its potential. The same can't be said for MI, where Arroyo and Rengifo form a somewhat less than average unit.
As our (former?) podcasters used to say, they've got a Catcher.
Biggest Strength: OF
Biggest Weakness: C
Pitching
There are some strong starters on the Mariners, such as Kershaw, Fried, and Severino, and that should help them with ERA and WHIP most weeks. The projections aren't sure that they have enough starters to win W and K every week, though.
The bullpen shines with setup men, but lacks a true closer. Hopefully some of those holds can turn into saves as jobs change hands over the course of the year.
Overall
Texas Rangers
Hitting
MI is the name of the game for Texas' offense. Led by the trio of Corey Seager, Enrique Hernandez and Nicky Lopez, the unit is better than average, and is well balanced for HR, SB and AVG. There are a lot of outfield pieces to mix and match, including Jorge Soler, Ramon Laureano, and others (including multi-eligibility player Hernandez). Elly De La Cruz is a big hope to bolster the MI or CI position whenever he gets called up.
Biggest Strength: MI
Biggest Weakness: CI
Pitching
Sandy Alcantara head a strong starting pitching lineup. The strength lies more in numbers than in star power, but that should help Texas to win counting stats like W and K most weeks.
Alexis Diaz and Will Smith should help accumulate saves while Bleier, Burke, Soto, and Hearn all accumulate holds. Overall, pitching is the strength of this Rangers unit, and will help dictate how far they end up going.
Overall
Win Probabilities
Those of us who have been here a while will remember the old AL Central battles where seemingly everyone had a shot. Welcome to the 2023 AL West, who is a redux of those old battles. It very much appears to be a three team battle, between the Athletics, Mariners and Astros, with the Astros as a marginal favorite. All three of those teams have over a 25% chance at winning the division, so pay attention whenever there's an AL West matchup. But Texas has about a 7.5% chance at winning the division too, and even the Angels have an almost 2% chance. In fact, the AL West is the only division in the entire league where each team has above 1% at taking it.
