Manny Machado example

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

Please look at past Rookie of the Year players like

Crosby
Hamlin
Berroa
Morrison

to name a few.



Since Machado is the best example of guys hitting better than their minor league numbers....

please look up "sophmore slump" or refer to any 1st year all star or in the voting for rookie of the year...

and the final numbers to look at (and learn from if your mind is open)....

Machado's walk to strikeout rate in the Majors......its as bad as Adam Dunns, lol.....he will NOT succeed with that type of rate to hit above .260 in majors....NOBODY does especially after pitchers figure it out what he swings at.

Good new Machado's walk to strikeout rate in the MINORS....suggests that he could recover and be a good hitter.

So in fact, he currently IS NOT having better numbers than he did in the minors, if you look at these numbers. (and if you look at all hitters will tell you more than anything else, just look at minor leaguers in the last 10 years who had over 140 strikeouts in any one season in the minors....almost 98 to 99 percent never make it other than a backup player)

Watch over the next two seasons, he gets better k to w numbers he will hit in the majors.....his k to w ratio stays the same...the major league pitching will EAT HIS LUNCH like they have MANY, TONS MANY before him with those type of numbers.....lol

I can get 20 people who prove my theory, if you can find 20 people who have succeeded in the Majors for over 7 years with Machado's current strikeout to walk ratio...

List them, and I will list mine.

[White Sox GM (Aidan)]

1) I never said the Manny Machado was the prime example of someone who outproduced his minor league numbers. There are literally thousands of examples. I simply named him because he was a decent example of someone who's numbers in the minors didn't live up to his scouting report. Looking just at his stats and not his overall package, skill set, athleticism, age, swing, work ethic, size, etc. is just lazy.

2)You can't seriously be comparing minor league to major league walk rates can you? Walk rates between minors to majors have one of the lowest correlations of any minor league conversion stat. Minor league pitchers have worse command and control, thus making it easier to walk off of them.

2.) Is your entire basis of "stats" just k/bb ratio? If so, hilarious.

3.) " just look at minor leaguers in the last 10 years who had over 140 strikeouts in any one season in the minors....almost 98 to 99 percent never make it other than a backup player)"

This is not a fact. This is a statistic you just made up. It's also incredibly irrelevant. Manny Machado never k'd 140 in a minor league season so not sure why you brought it up. 140 strikeouts is such an arbitrary number and one that is much harder to reach in a minor league season because of the lower amount of games. Just look at k%. There are actually tons of players who struck out a ton in the minors and then lowered their strikeout rates in the pros.

4) Adam Dunn actually has a much better k/bb rate than Machado. Again, your "stats" aren't actually factually correct. Looking at a players k/bb in isolation of k% and bb% is pointless too.

I really don't feel like committing any more of my time responding to this argument. Players are more complex then simply skimming over their numbers. You can keep making up numbers that support your opinions when completely ignoring ones that go against them.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

2)You can't seriously be comparing minor league to major league walk rates can you? Walk rates between minors to majors have one of the lowest correlations of any minor league conversion stat. Minor league pitchers have worse command and control, thus making it easier to walk off of them.

Read more: pbfantasybaseball.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=general&action=display&thread=8401#ixzz2aIXhUaUR

great point....and look at the guys who strikeout over 100 plus times in the minors that make the top 100 list.....then look at how many fail.....I will guarantee that if you put all the players that strike out over 100 times in a season (they don't even get 500 AB's and lucky to get 400)...that an OVERWHELMING majority do not make it in the majors.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

like I said, I will list actually players, 20, when you spend the time to...I have been looking at players for over 20 years and there is a very noticable pattern, sure their are exceptions to the rules...

but you can look at

Ian Stewart, Justin Smoak, Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood, blah de blah de blah..top 100 prospects....crappy strikeout rates in MINORS and failure as pros...

I can't list too many with high strikeout rates in the minors, who were STUDS in the majors.....but I would love you see you list 20 players....

Again, I can back up all my stats but not going to do the work til you can list 20 players...then I will, just to prove the point.

You can continue to try and shoot down my stats but until you can support your own theory...your just talk..mine have worked for over a decade, lol...I think I will be fine with them.

McPherson - Top 100 prospect - 169 ks in minor season with 40 hrs....7 years of over 100 ks in minors (against the pitchers who walk too many people according to you)

Brandon Wood - Top 100 prospect - 7 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors (against pitchers who walk too many people)

Matt Kemp - Top 100 prospect (only 1 year '06) great example - 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio in minors and majors...5 seasons hitting great...3 seasons under .260....as he ages, it will not be pretty...since he is now peaked and down hill on bat speed...high strikeout totals.

Ian Stewart - Top 100 prospect (5 consecutive years)...3 years in minors over 100 strikeouts (that was in A and AA ball...pitchers must of forgot that they are suppose to walk batters, lol)

Angel Berroa - Top 15 prospect - 3 to 1 k to walk rate in minors, then a 4 to 1 in the majors....out of baseball...

when you start to get it, you will understand what the walk to strikeout rate tells you............................HOW GOOD of BATTING EYE THEY HAVE...(some MLB scouts use a term called CONTACT RATES, lol). if they don't have a good EYE in the minors....their EYE isn't going to get BETTER in the Majors....lol...

I know I will be able to pull up at least 5 players or more for every 1 player you can possibly find whos k to walk ratios got BETTER in the majors....lol...but be my guest...since you use so many stats/facts in your points...I can't wait to see any of them.

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

This is generally silly. Some players are far better in the majors than they project to be based on their minor league track record. Currently Paul Goldschmidt is an example of this. Other players flop in the majors despite a history of minor league success, as Dustin Ackley is working hard to achieve. Some players, like Gordon Beckham, immediately regress in every phase of the game. These are constants over the entire history of this (rather silly) sport of baseball. These are also why baseball remains unpredictable and awesome. If anyone here has actually cracked the code for projecting which players will succeed in the majors, you probably should be working for an actual baseball team and not running a fantasy team. If desired, you can do both, I suppose. If you have cracked the code but decided to do this rather than the obvious, well, I'm flattered. Thanks for playing with us. But unless proven otherwise, let's presume all prospect evaluations are comparable to the famous line that 5 pitching prospects makes a starter. Because I hear rumor that prospects will break your heart.

I own a lot of prospects.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

these are all arguments that have gone on for 100 years...and will always go on in baseball....lol...they will always continue with or without us...

time will tell......that we all have an opionion when it comes to baseball...and we all will be right and wrong about 50/50...like the top 100 list, lol.

PS...Paul Goldschmidt has been in the majors for 2 seasons...had over 160 k's in a minor league year...there is no way to determine if he will make it til he is 30 yrs old...

Please use an example of someone over 140 k in any minor league season who had a successfull career...that means he would have to be a min...of around 35 yrs old by now.

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

Mike, I'm not going that route. I cite Goldschmidt only as an example of someone performing better than his statistical record would suggest is probable. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Former Twins GM (Robin)]

David Ortiz. 142 punchouts in 1997. HOF (probably). Age 37.

[Cubs GM (Beau)]

No DH should ever get in the Hall. Death to the designated hitter and long live the National League!

[Nationals GM (Preston - Old)]

Mike nailed it.

[White Sox GM (Aidan)]

Beau, Edgar Martinez for the win!

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

Ah, the strategy that having pitchers hit adds to the game.

[Cubs GM (Beau)]

Sorry, but David Ortiz said it best himself during his complete meltdown. Paraphrased, I don't pitch, I don't field, I hit. He may as well as said, "I don't play baseball."

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

the great thing is, now more fantasy players who want to learn will include looking at strikeout to walk ratios for both hitters and pitchers and learn the importance of that statistic...and determine on their own its actual value.

Over time, it will make more sense.

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

I like to think of his position as 'Bat'.

[White Sox GM (Aidan)]

Hitting isn't baseball anymore? I guess by that logic al pitchers aren't playing baseball. The hall of fame is for the most valuable players of all time, shouldn't matter how you add that value.

[Cubs GM (Beau)]

AL pitchers are pitching and fielding and only restricted from the third part of the holy trinity by that crazy rule. I have for a few years maintained Clayton Kershaw is the most valuable player for this very reason. If you want to take a look at value, it only proves my point. WAR takes into account dWAR. Look at the two top value performers this year:

Carlos Gomez stands at 6.8 WAR but is buoyed by a 3.2 dWAR.
Miggy is sporting a 5.8 WAR mainly because of his -0.8 dWAR.

Ortiz is sitting at a 3.3 WAR without playing defense. This compares to such players as Howie Kendrick, Marlon Byrd, Kyle Seager, Andrelton Simmons, and 2 months of Puig. If you take Miggy's D as a comparable (which is generous), you are getting at the 2.5 level which houses such players as Nick Swisher and Kendrys Morales. A more likely -1.2 drop in dWAR compares Ortiz to Brian Dozier and Ichiro. Given the comparable age/declines of Ortiz and Ichiro, this difference can suggest the inflationary nature of the DH "position".

[White Sox GM (Aidan)]

Carlos Gomez stands at 6.8 WAR but is buoyed by a 3.2 dWAR.
Miggy is sporting a 5.8 WAR mainly because of his -0.8 dWAR.

Ortiz is sitting at a 3.3 WAR without playing defense. This compares to such players as Howie Kendrick, Marlon Byrd, Kyle Seager, Andrelton Simmons, and 2 months of Puig. If you take Miggy's D as a comparable (which is generous), you are getting at the 2.5 level which houses such players as Nick Swisher and Kendrys Morales. A more likely -1.2 drop in dWAR compares Ortiz to Brian Dozier and Ichiro. Given the comparable age/declines of Ortiz and Ichiro, this difference can suggest the inflationary nature of the DH "position".

Why would you add a negative defense war to Ortiz. He hasn't played defense, nor will he. Adding a negative impact to his WAR absolutely makes no sense because it doesn't reflect the value he contributed towards the Red Sox. He is a hitter only because that's what he can do and the Red Sox are aware of that. If he is more valuable than Simmons, Kendrick, Byrd, etc why does it matter how each player contributed on the field? They all provided the same amount of wins towards the teams.

My original argument was towards the hall of fame anyways. I don't disagree that only hitting makes it harder to make a big contribution. If said player makes a large enough contribution solely from hitting it shouldn't affect his chances of making it into the hall of fame. Edgar Martinez is tied at 109 in career WAR at 68.3, ahead of a ton of guys already in the hall of fame. WAR has already calculated the face that he didn't add or lose value in the field, that should be the end of it. He provided hall of fame value for his whole career, vote him in.

[Pirates GM (Hollar)]

Beau, fWAR automatically contains a positional adjustment to its final number, so Ortiz is already being penalized pretty hard for not playing defense. I could be off here, but I believe the adjustment is around -12.5 runs/150 games. This is a little less than Miggy's current -19.4 runs/150 with a +2.5 runs/150 positional adjustment, but not terribly so. Docking him more runs than fWAR already does seems a bit over the top.

[Former Angels GM (Mike C.)]

see what I mean, it doesn't matter what statistics are used, in baseball and around baseball...they are all argued and all have merit...to each their own and whatever works for them.....k to w ratios for hitters and pitchers will continue to be the first stat I will always look at, because it works for me...good luck with using any of the WAR numbers...its unbelievable and unconceivable some of the player who have great war numbers and who doesn't...

but I will bet if you look at the top 100 war hitters...a majority will have good strikeout to walk ratios....exception to the rule...David Ortiz, lol.

PS...the reason I said Matt Carpenter would be a TOP 3 MI before the season started, you guessed it....strikeout to walk ratios, lol.

The reason the Upton brothers will never be on any team I have, strikeout to walk ratio.....the player I am still on the fence about....Matt Kemp....he can't keep up the ratio and be successfull long term, unless he is a freak like Ortiz.

Jeff Francour - Top 100 prospect....career k to w ratio almost 4 to 1 in majors...3 to 1 in minors....Eric Aybar Top 100 prospect ratio...2.4 to 1 in majors...2.1 to 1 in minors.....David Ortiz...1.5 to 1 in the majors.....2.1 in the minors

strike out to walk ratio tells who will have a longer career in the MAJORS, lol....please name anyone who had higher than a 3 to 1 k to walk ratio in the tje minors with a long career....Ortiz is officially OUT after reviewing the ACTUAL statistics....ratio is still the best stat to look at.